美债日债抛售潮VS黄金铂金创新高：贵金属进入周期性牛市

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is facing significant challenges, leading to a strong performance in precious metals like gold and silver, which are seen as safe-haven assets. Analysts predict a potential cyclical bull market for these metals in the near future [1][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - On January 21, spot gold reached a new high of $4862.46 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.1%, while platinum also hit a record high of $2511.10 per ounce [3][4]. - Silver prices approached their historical peak, trading at $94.48 per ounce, just shy of the $95.87 record set earlier [3]. - Analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. policy are driving the demand for gold, with expectations that prices could reach $5000 per ounce sooner than anticipated [3][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds has raised concerns about fiscal stability, contributing to a trend of "devaluation trading" where investors seek alternatives to currency and government bonds [4]. - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to buy up to 150 tons, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, which supports gold prices [5]. - The copper market is also experiencing significant price increases, with LME copper contracts showing a premium of $100, the highest since 2021, indicating strong demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Commodity Cycle - Market experts believe that a long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with precious metals like gold and silver expected to continue performing well due to structural factors such as increased government spending and geopolitical uncertainties [6][7]. - The demand for industrial metals, particularly copper, is anticipated to rise due to factors like AI-related capital expenditures and overall economic growth expectations [7]. - Investment strategies are shifting towards gold as a defensive asset, with institutions increasingly favoring it over traditional government bonds due to concerns about their performance in negative scenarios [8][10]. Group 4: Silver and Other Precious Metals - Silver is expected to benefit from the same investment logic as gold, although it carries higher volatility and risks [9]. - Other precious metals like palladium are also considered, but they come with specific risks related to their production locations [9].