美联储下周或将“按兵不动”，经济学家预计：降息需等待鲍威尔“谢幕”

Core Viewpoint - Strong economic growth and persistent inflation data are reshaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with a significant likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting and delaying any rate cuts until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.3%, leading economists to revise the growth forecast for the year from 2.2% to 2.3%, which is notably above the Fed's estimated non-inflation growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The preferred inflation measure of the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is expected to remain above the 2% target for the remainder of the year and for each calendar year until 2028 [2] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at an average of 4.5% for the year [2] Interest Rate Outlook - Some analysts suggest that the Fed may even consider raising rates based on current economic data, but the baseline forecast still points to maintaining the status quo [3] - Following the leadership change at the Fed, there may be an attempt to implement an additional 50 basis points cut later in the year [3] Political Factors - Political factors are increasingly interfering with the Fed's decision-making process, with significant internal disagreements among policymakers and external pressures remaining high [4] - The ongoing criminal investigation against Powell and Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook are contributing to market uncertainty [4][5] - The selection process for the next Fed chair is expected to face unprecedented challenges due to the criminal investigation, complicating the appointment of candidates inclined towards rate cuts [5]