如果美国武力打击伊朗，投资需要注意什么？| 0121

Market Overview - On January 21, the market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly turning negative in the afternoon. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.54% [1]. ETF Activity - Last week, the overall net outflow from broad-based ETFs reached 212.62 billion yuan, with over 100 billion yuan net outflow from ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index. Various other broad-based ETFs, including those tracking the CSI 500, CSI A500, ChiNext, and STAR Market, also experienced varying degrees of outflow [2]. - Significant trading volume was observed in multiple broad-based ETFs towards the end of the trading day on January 21. There are market views suggesting that the large transactions in major broad-based ETFs are related to "counter-cyclical adjustments," where influential funds sell ETFs to control market sentiment during overheated conditions and buy them back to provide support during cooler market phases [3]. Geopolitical and Economic Developments - The "Tariff War 2.0" or "Territorial War 1.0" is currently in a critical phase, potentially causing significant short-term market volatility, largely depending on developments in the coming weeks. A major focus is on Japan, where the yield on 40-year government bonds surged above 4%, marking a significant shift in Japan's bond market [5][9]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed concerns about the impact of Japanese bond sell-offs on the U.S. Treasury market, highlighting the volatility in Japan's bond market [7]. - Japan's long-standing ultra-low interest rate policy has led to its bond yields being significantly lower than those of other countries. The recent rise in Japanese bond yields may attract funds back to Japan, impacting the flow of global capital [9]. Energy Sector Insights - The energy sector has shown resilience amid recent market fluctuations, with U.S. energy companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron demonstrating strong performance due to their geographical advantages and cost structures. These companies are expected to benefit from rising oil prices, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [21][34]. - The anticipated rise in oil prices, driven by potential supply disruptions, could lead to increased cash flow for companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), which has a strong cost control and dividend policy [34][35]. Military and Defense Sector - The global arms race is intensifying, with countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia increasing their defense budgets in response to geopolitical tensions. This trend is expected to secure future orders for defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies [23][29]. - Boeing has regained investor confidence, with expectations of achieving profitability for the first time in seven years by 2026, reflecting a recovery in its operational performance [24][29]. Polyester Industry Dynamics - The polyester filament industry is proactively implementing large-scale production cuts to address high inventory levels and improve profitability during the upcoming demand season. This strategic move is supported by a concentrated market structure, allowing leading companies to effectively manage supply [39][41]. - New Fengming, a key player in the polyester filament industry, is expected to benefit significantly from these production cuts, with potential improvements in profit margins as market conditions stabilize [45][48].