上海去年增速超预期：工业投资为何激增20%？高出口能否延续？

Economic Overview - In 2025, Shanghai's GDP reached 5.67 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the initial target of 5% and the national average growth rate of 5.0% [1][2] - The primary industry added value was 99.39 billion yuan (2.0% growth), the secondary industry was 11,650.62 billion yuan (3.5% growth), and the tertiary industry was 44,958.70 billion yuan (6.0% growth) [1][3] Income and Employment - The per capita disposable income in Shanghai was 91,987 yuan, a 4.1% increase from the previous year, which is lower than the GDP growth rate [1] - The average urban unemployment rate was 4.2%, better than the national average of 5.2% [1] Key Economic Drivers - Shanghai's economic growth is primarily supported by advanced manufacturing, new foreign trade products, and modern service industries [1][2] - The three leading manufacturing sectors (integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence) saw a 9.6% increase in output, while the new energy sector grew by 12.9% [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shanghai grew by 4.6%, which is below the GDP growth rate [7] - Industrial investment surged by 20.0%, the highest in over a decade, while real estate investment declined by 3.1% [10] - Urban infrastructure investment increased by 11.2%, indicating a structural optimization in investment [10] Consumption Patterns - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1.66 trillion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year, reversing a decline from the previous year [11] - The increase in inbound tourism, with 9.36 million visitors, contributed significantly to the consumption market [12] Trade Performance - Shanghai's total import and export volume reached 4.51 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase, with exports growing by 10.8% [13] - The export of "new three samples" products increased by 17.4%, with electric vehicle exports rising by 13.8% [6][13] Future Outlook - For 2026, Shanghai aims for a GDP growth target of around 5%, considering external uncertainties and internal structural adjustments [16] - Key factors influencing future economic performance include exports, investments, and consumption [17] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes synchronized growth of resident income and economic growth, along with improving labor remuneration and productivity [20]