IBM Q4 Earnings Loom: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock Ahead of Results?

Core Viewpoint - IBM is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 28, 2026, with consensus estimates for sales at $19.21 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $4.33 [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2025 remain stable at $11.38, while estimates for 2026 have increased by 0.3% to $12.19 per share over the past 60 days [1][2]. - The current EPS estimate for Q1 is $4.33, and for Q2 is $1.77, with no change in the full-year estimates for 2025 and a slight increase for 2026 [2]. Earnings Surprise History - IBM has achieved an average earnings surprise of 8.1% over the last four quarters, consistently beating estimates, with the last quarter showing a surprise of 8.6% [3][4]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - New AI-driven partnerships with S&P Global Inc. and Microsoft Corporation are expected to enhance revenue in the Software and Consulting segments [7][8][9]. - IBM's partnership with S&P Global aims to integrate AI tools into supply chain management, potentially generating incremental revenue [8]. - The extended partnership with Microsoft will enhance IBM's consulting capabilities, likely leading to additional revenue [9]. Competitive Landscape - Despite growth in cloud and AI, IBM faces significant competition from Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, along with challenges in transitioning its business model to the cloud [11]. - The company is experiencing pricing pressure that is eroding margins, and profitability has been declining over the years [11]. Price Performance - Over the past year, IBM's stock has increased by 30.5%, while the industry has risen by 93.5%, outperforming peers like Microsoft and Oracle [12]. Valuation Metrics - IBM is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 23.8, which is higher than the industry average of 17.96 and its own historical mean of 14.78 [14]. Investment Considerations - IBM aims to capitalize on the growing demand for hybrid cloud and generative AI solutions, which are expected to drive growth in its Software and Consulting segments [15][18]. - However, frequent acquisitions have raised integration risks and negatively impacted the balance sheet, leading to high levels of goodwill and intangible assets [16]. Long-term Growth Outlook - The company anticipates that analytics, cloud computing, and security services will be key drivers of growth, supported by improved operating leverage and investments in growth opportunities [18].