对2026房价的侧面判断

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the real estate market in Shanghai is currently driven by low-priced properties under 3 million, primarily catering to first-time homebuyers, with a notable decrease in the influx of new residents [1] - Shanghai's permanent resident population is projected to be 24.8 million, with a target of 25 million by 2035, suggesting limited growth in demand for affordable housing in the coming years [1] - The effective demand for properties priced around 3 million is expected to be low unless there is significant urban renewal, which may create new demand [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the cyclical nature of the real estate market is unavoidable, and the best approach is to manage the pain through policy measures rather than attempting to eliminate the cycle [2] - There are rumors of potential policy relaxations in 2026, but the effectiveness of such measures in meeting market expectations is uncertain [2] - The current stability in the Shanghai real estate market indicates a period of observation is advisable, with ongoing policies suggesting that the market will continue in its current state [2]