金价1月20日：大家提前做好准备，明后两天，金价或迎来重大转向

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market has experienced a price adjustment after a period of continuous increase, with international gold prices retreating from a historical high of $4636 per ounce to around $4595, indicating a significant market shift [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The prices of brand jewelry gold have adjusted, with notable reductions: Chow Tai Fook's price for 999 gold dropped to 1315 CNY per gram, Lao Feng Xiang to 1312 CNY, and Chow Sang Sang to 1308 CNY [3]. - Investment gold bar prices are more directly affected, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China quoting 1047.57 CNY per gram, Construction Bank at 1046 CNY, and Agricultural Bank at 1048.63 CNY [3]. Market Dynamics - The market correction is attributed to profit-taking by investors at historical highs, leading to selling pressure. The prevalence of algorithmic trading has intensified price volatility, triggering stop-loss orders when gold prices breach key technical levels [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by geopolitical risks, particularly U.S. President Trump's threats regarding tariffs on European countries, which heightened global market risk aversion and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4]. Long-term Support Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations provide long-term support for gold prices, with market consensus anticipating at least two interest rate cuts within the year, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4]. - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of over 64% in 2025, with further gains expected in 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [4]. Regional Price Variations - Despite a general decline in base gold prices, the final prices consumers pay vary significantly due to "processing fees," which can account for 20% to 30% of the total price depending on the complexity of the jewelry design [6]. - There are notable geographical price disparities, with first-tier cities maintaining higher prices (1300-1315 CNY per gram) compared to lower prices in second and third-tier cities. In Hainan, prices can drop to 1180-1185 CNY per gram due to tax policies, while in Lhasa, prices can soar to 1470-1475 CNY per gram [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently experiencing uncertainty, with gold prices seeking support around $4575 per ounce. The upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials and any new geopolitical developments could significantly impact market sentiment and gold prices [8][10]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for gold futures, which may force leveraged traders to liquidate positions, potentially amplifying short-term price declines [10]. - Central banks globally have been increasing gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 297 tons from January to November 2025, reinforcing long-term demand for gold and supporting its price [10]. Investment Considerations - The recent surge in gold prices has raised questions about its status as a safe haven in the context of rising digital currencies and evolving asset forms. The historical bull market in gold has been fueled by various economic challenges and shifts in global confidence [11]. - Some institutions have raised concerns about current gold price valuations, indicating that the price has reached historically high levels relative to M2 money supply, suggesting potential overvaluation [13]. - Technically, gold is currently testing the critical support level at $4600, with the historical peak of $4720 serving as a resistance point. The market is poised for potential volatility as it awaits key signals that could drive significant price movements [13].