JIAXIN INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES INVESTMENT(03858.HK)：A RISING WORLD-CLASS STAR IN THE TUNGSTEN MINING INDUSTRY

Core Viewpoint - Jiaxin International Resources Investment is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$95.00, reflecting strong growth potential in the tungsten mining sector, particularly in Kazakhstan [1]. Industry Overview - Global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight due to scarce resources and increasing production standards, with a projected CAGR of 2.4% in raw tungsten supply from 2023 to 2028 [1]. - Demand for tungsten is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% over the same period, driven by emerging applications in photovoltaic tungsten wire, AI PCBs, and geopolitical tensions leading to strategic stockpiling [2]. Price Outlook - With structural deficits in supply and demand and low global inventories, average tungsten prices are expected to experience steady upward pressure [3]. Company Advantages - Jiaxin has four core advantages: 1. Abundant resources at the Boguty tungsten mine, characterized by large reserves and low operating costs [4]. 2. Strategic location in Kazakhstan, benefiting from favorable transport links and the China-Kazakhstan partnership [4]. 3. A sound management mechanism with a mixed-ownership structure and experienced team [4]. 4. Strong growth potential in capacity expansion and resource development [4]. Financial Projections - EPS forecasts are HK$0.63 in 2025, HK$4.18 in 2026, and HK$6.56 in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 221.6%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at Rmb0.26 billion in 2025, Rmb1.72 billion in 2026, and Rmb2.63 billion in 2027 [5]. - The stock is currently trading at 16.5x and 10.5x 2026e and 2027e P/E, with a target price offering a 38% upside [5].