化妆品交易额破1.1万亿元，线上销量占比接近2/3

Core Insights - The Chinese cosmetics industry is projected to reach a total transaction value of 1.104245 trillion yuan by 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.83%, and maintaining its position as the world's largest cosmetics consumer market [1][6]. Market Overview - The market is undergoing a significant transformation, with resources concentrating on leading brands and technology-driven companies, while weaker brands are being eliminated [3][9]. - The market share of domestic brands has increased for four consecutive years, reaching 57.37% by 2025, indicating a shift towards a "domestic brand-led" market [3][6]. Brand Dynamics - The number of brands with sales exceeding 100 million yuan is expected to rise from 746 in 2023 to 839 in 2025, reflecting an improvement in brand quality [6]. - The top 1000 online brands are increasingly dominated by domestic brands, which are now competing effectively against traditional powerhouses from France, the USA, Japan, and South Korea [3][6]. Market Structure Changes - The industry is experiencing a significant shakeout, with an estimated 27,000 brands expected to be eliminated by 2025, and only about 26% of lower-tier brands projected to achieve growth [9][12]. - The market is shifting from quantity-based competition to quality-based competition, focusing on brand value, technological innovation, and user experience [9][12]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are evolving towards high-cost performance products priced below 300 yuan and high-end products above 1000 yuan, while the mid-range market is being squeezed [13]. - The new consumer consensus emphasizes rational and refined purchasing decisions, focusing on ingredients, efficacy, cultural identity, and emotional value [13]. Regulatory Environment - New regulations are being introduced to create a fair competitive environment for both online and offline channels, with offline spaces being redefined as comprehensive areas for brand experience and social interaction [14]. - The regulatory framework is shifting from strict control to promoting development, with a focus on innovation incentives and reducing entry barriers for new products [14]. Technological Innovation - The integration of artificial intelligence is expected to reshape the industry significantly between 2026 and 2030, enhancing research and development, personalized content production, and supply chain efficiency [17]. - Companies are increasingly investing in R&D, with the average R&D expense ratio rising from 2.36% to 3.24% over five years, highlighting a trend towards innovation-driven growth [14][17]. Future Outlook - The industry aims to transition from being a "cosmetics manufacturing power" to a "cosmetics strong power," focusing on intelligent, green, and integrated development [16][18]. - The market is expected to expand towards the "silver economy" and international markets, with domestic brands enhancing their global presence [16][15].