Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-21 19:39Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged dramatically, reaching a record high of $4,640 per ounce in early 2026, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors, benefiting upstream gold mining companies significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - In 2025, the international gold price increased by nearly 70%, marking the largest annual increase since the 1979 oil crisis, starting from around $2,600 per ounce and nearing $4,600 by year-end [3]. - The domestic gold jewelry price rose from approximately 800 yuan per gram to around 1,360 yuan per gram due to the soaring gold prices [3]. - The global central banks purchased a net total of 297 tons of gold from early 2025 to the end of November, providing long-term support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Mining Companies' Performance - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a nearly 60% increase, with gold production reaching about 90 tons [1]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70% to 81% [3]. - Shandong Gold reported a revenue of 83.78 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 91.5% [4]. - Zhongjin Gold's net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.214 billion yuan, up 60.92% year-on-year, slightly surpassing Shandong Gold [4]. - Zijin Mining's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 254.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, a 55.45% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost and Market Dynamics - The unit sales cost for gold mining companies has increased due to rising gold prices and other factors, although some companies like Chaojin Gold have managed to reduce costs through product structure adjustments [5]. - Retail companies in the gold jewelry sector are facing challenges, with brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Dazheng reporting revenue declines of 8.71% and 37.35%, respectively [7]. - The increase in gold prices has also positively impacted other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% in 2025 [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about future gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting a rise to approximately $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, and JPMorgan forecasting a potential peak of $6,000 per ounce [7]. - The global gold ETF assets reached a record high of $472 billion by the end of Q3 2025, indicating strong investment demand [8]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. debt situation are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the long term [11].