市场预计美国11月通胀压力保持稳定 美联储下周维持利率不变概率达95%

Core Insights - The upcoming inflation report is expected to show stable inflation pressures in the U.S., explaining the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts [1][2] - The November core PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating inflation levels remain significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - Despite some indicators suggesting a gradual cooling of inflation pressures, the core PCE typically exhibits less volatility compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] Inflation Indicators - The overall PCE is also expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating a sideways movement in inflation levels [1] - Citigroup economists noted that the core PCE inflation may show "sticky rather than accelerating" characteristics towards the end of 2025 [1] - The data disturbances from last year's government shutdown continue to affect the November readings, with seasonal adjustments likely to revise recent data in the coming months [1] Wage Growth and Service Sector - Signs of inflation easing are accumulating, with wage growth significantly slowing down, approaching pre-pandemic levels according to the Atlanta Fed's wage tracking indicator [1] - The cooling of wage growth complicates maintaining high service sector inflation, especially with expected declines in housing costs this year [1] Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are weighing conflicting signals, as inflation has not worsened but the cooling rate is insufficient to clearly support recent interest rate cuts [2] - The upcoming PCE report will be an important reference for policymakers, but it is unlikely to lead to immediate policy changes [2] - Investors currently anticipate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming policy meeting [3]