Visa Forecasts AI Adoption and Shifting Trade Patterns Driving Economic Transformation in 2026

Core Perspective - Visa projects a steady yet transformative year for the global economy, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.7% for 2026, slightly down from 2.9% in 2025, highlighting underlying forces reshaping the economic landscape [1][2] Economic Growth Drivers - The economy is undergoing a fundamental rebuild driven by technological advancements, new international trade dynamics, and innovative digital solutions, with business investments expected to propel the next wave of growth [2][6] - Generative AI adoption is accelerating, particularly among small businesses, leading to increased transaction volumes for firms that integrate this technology [3][4] Trade Patterns and Supply Chains - Global supply chains are fragmenting due to geopolitical tensions and tariffs, with intra-regional trade now accounting for about two-thirds of overall trade expansion, fostering growth in sectors like mining and technology [5][6] - Companies are diversifying suppliers and shortening logistics routes, which is expected to boost business travel and cross-border commercial payments [5] Consumer Spending and Inflation - Consumer spending is forecasted to grow at 2.4%, down from 2.7% last year, amid easing inflation from 3.4% to 3.1%, but this slowdown is offset by business investments driven by AI infrastructure development [6][8] Demographic and Structural Challenges - Demographic pressures, such as aging populations, present challenges, but the economy shows resilience following policy shifts in 2025 [7] - Companies that leverage real-time data and flexible strategies are expected to thrive in this evolving environment [7]