印度股市持续“不温不火”

Group 1 - The SENSEX index in India is projected to rise by 9% in 2025, while China's Shanghai Composite Index, which has a higher concentration of tech stocks, is expected to increase by approximately 18%, and South Korea's composite index is forecasted to surge by 75% [2] - Despite a robust Indian economy, overseas funds are shifting focus towards AI and resource stocks, leading to underperformance of the Indian stock market compared to developed and other emerging markets [2][5] - Foreign investors continued to sell Indian stocks into January 2026, with a net sell-off of ₹1.6628 trillion (approximately ¥127.186 billion) in 2025, and an additional net sell of ₹185.8 billion by January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Indian economy remains strong, with a projected GDP growth of 7.4% for the fiscal year 2025, and an 8.2% year-on-year growth in GDP for the July-September 2025 quarter, significantly exceeding expectations [3] - The decline in sovereign wealth fund investments in India from $20.1 billion in 2024 to $5.7 billion in 2025 represents a staggering 72% drop, with 70% of new investments coming from the Middle East, primarily focused on AI and data centers [5] - The Indian stock market's relative weakness is attributed to a lack of high-tech stocks, with the SENSEX index rising only 9% in 2025 compared to the approximately 13% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 17% in the S&P 500 [5][6] Group 3 - Investment trends in emerging markets show a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by about 18% and South Korea's composite index increasing by 75%, while resource-rich countries like South Africa and Brazil also saw significant index gains [6] - The sentiment among investors is shifting towards markets with better returns, as the view that "it is difficult to profit in the moderately performing Indian stock market" becomes widespread [6] - The positioning of India in the context of global geopolitical changes is increasingly important for overseas investors [6]