南侨食品营收降3%连续4年增长乏力 扣非跌80%再创新低寄望下沉纾困

Core Viewpoint - Nanchao Foods (605339.SH), a leader in the baking industry, is experiencing stagnation in revenue growth and a significant decline in profits, with projected net profits for 2025 expected to drop by 78.39% to 81.99% compared to the previous year [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 36.26 million and 43.52 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of approximately 158 million to 165 million yuan year-on-year [3][5]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 30.88 million and 37.05 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 79.71% to 83.09% [2][3]. - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 3.065 billion yuan, down about 3% from 3.159 billion yuan in the previous year [8]. Profitability Challenges - The decline in profitability is attributed to rising prices of key raw materials, which have increased production costs and led to a decrease in overall gross and net profit margins [5][6]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.01%, down from 24.47% in the same period last year, with a record low of 17.05% in the third quarter [5][6]. Market Strategy - To address these challenges, the company plans to enhance its marketing strategy by focusing on the retail and catering sectors, as well as deepening its penetration into lower-tier markets [2][8][16]. - Nanchao Foods aims to expand its dealer network, having increased the number of dealers to 471 by mid-2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [8]. Historical Performance - The company's net profits from 2022 to 2024 were 161 million, 232 million, and 201 million yuan, with significant fluctuations in growth rates [7]. - Revenue growth has consistently fallen short of expectations, with only one year (2021) meeting the performance targets set in its stock incentive plan [10][13]. Future Outlook - Nanchao Foods plans to adapt its procurement strategies based on raw material price trends and improve operational efficiency through enhanced production processes and supply chain management [15][16]. - The company is committed to product innovation and expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer needs, particularly in the baking and dairy sectors [16].