张尧浠：地缘局势缓解、黄金关注调整及再度入场机会

Core Viewpoint - The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a temporary adjustment in gold prices, with potential re-entry opportunities for bullish investors as support levels are approached [1][5]. Price Movement - On January 21, gold opened at $4,764.09 per ounce, peaked at $4,887.76, and closed at $4,830.99, marking a daily increase of $66.9 or 1.4% [3]. - The price exhibited a daily range of $131.92, indicating volatility in the market [3]. Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to face downward pressure due to profit-taking and a strengthening U.S. dollar, but the overall upward trend remains intact [3][5]. - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. initial jobless claims and GDP data, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Despite the short-term easing of geopolitical tensions, long-term support for gold prices remains due to persistent geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. - The consensus is for at least two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, which is expected to weaken the dollar and drive more investment into gold [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, with potential for a bull market if current momentum continues [7]. - Weekly trends suggest a possible need for a correction in the near term, with support levels at the 5-10 week moving averages [7]. - Daily charts show that if gold prices drop to the support of the ascending channel, it could present another buying opportunity [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,770 and $4,720/$4,680, while resistance levels are at $4,845 and $4,880/$4,920 [9]. - For silver, support is at $90.55 and $88.45, with resistance at $93.50 and $94.70 [9].