SCSF(SH:600779) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-22 00:25Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, attributed to deep industry adjustments and a strategic contraction [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 42% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 381 million yuan, also down 71% [1] - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 51.73%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 69.52% [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment phase in 2025 due to macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with traditional consumption scenarios recovering slowly [1] - Overall industry inventory levels are high, impacting performance [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company prioritizes maintaining channel health by controlling shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel fund safety to lay a healthy foundation for future growth [2] - Measures include product suspension, optimizing promotional policies, and enhancing market order management to stabilize channel confidence and pricing [2] - The company has integrated channel inventory management into core KPIs to maintain channel profitability and healthy sales [2] Group 4: Long-term Development - Despite short-term performance pressure, the company aims to improve channel inventory quality, pricing stability, and distribution structure for future growth [2] - The company continues to invest long-term, optimizing expense efficiency and improving productivity measures [2] - New product "Shuijingfang·Jing 18" was launched, with a dual limit strategy on annual volume and partner numbers to create product scarcity [2] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company maintains a long-term perspective, expecting revenues of 3.017 billion yuan, 3.176 billion yuan, and 3.552 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 392 million yuan, 395 million yuan, and 445 million yuan respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are 48.42, 47.99, and 42.61 for the same period [3]