Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-22 00:58Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has begun to control and sell Venezuelan oil, with prices increasing by 30% since January 3, 2023, under the management of U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who oversees a stockpile of 30-50 million barrels [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Control and Investment Challenges - The U.S. aims to control not only the current production of Venezuelan oil but also its reserves and future production [2]. - Major oil companies, including ExxonMobil, express skepticism about investing in Venezuela due to the current conditions, while smaller companies are being encouraged to step in [3]. - The Venezuelan oil industry faces significant challenges, including high initial investment costs, extraction costs that are much higher than other oil-producing regions, and a politically unstable environment [5][9]. Group 2: Investment and Production Outlook - Venezuela's oil production is projected to average around 900,000 barrels per day by 2025, significantly lower than its peak production of over 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1960s [5][8]. - To maintain production levels, an estimated investment of $53 billion is needed over the next 15 years, with an additional $80-90 billion required annually from 2026 to 2040 to increase production above 1.4 million barrels per day [8][9]. - The breakeven cost for Venezuelan oil development is estimated to be between $70 and $80 per barrel, which is substantially higher than costs in the Middle East and Russia [9]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The global oil market is expected to remain oversupplied, with no significant impact from Venezuela's oil changes in the short term [4][12]. - Major oil companies are maintaining strict investment disciplines, with projected production growth of 23% by 2025, while spending is only expected to increase by 7% [12][13]. - Chevron is the only major company indicating potential for increased production in Venezuela, but its impact on the global market is expected to be minimal [14]. Group 4: Future Projections and Political Dynamics - If U.S. sanctions are adjusted to allow Venezuelan oil exports to U.S. refineries, some recovery in production may occur, but this could exacerbate the oversupply situation [15]. - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions are aimed at reinforcing the position of the U.S. dollar in oil transactions and reducing OPEC's influence [15].