1.22盘前速览 | 有色矿业狂欢，半导体引领趋势行情延续

Macroeconomic and International - The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged before Powell's term ends in May [1] - Trump has softened his stance on Greenland, while U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline [2] - The U.S. is increasing military presence in the Middle East, indicating ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - European pension funds (Denmark, Sweden) continue to reduce their holdings in U.S. Treasuries [4] - The U.S. proposed more trade talks with China before Trump's visit in April [5] Semiconductor - Long-term supply contracts (LTA) for memory products from companies like Winbond and Nanya have been extended to over two years, with some frameworks extending to 2030, reflecting optimism about long-term industry prospects [5] - Sellers indicate that Agentic AI will drive demand for high-bandwidth memory such as MRDIMM [6] - Overseas manufacturers are raising prices for analog chips, driven by structural shortages and growth in AI servers [7] - Related ETFs include Semiconductor Equipment ETF (on-market: 561980, off-market: 020464) [7] Artificial Intelligence - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China in late January to seek to reopen the AI chip market; OpenAI is reportedly set to launch ChatGPT advertisements in early February [8] - China has initiated a national AI industry investment fund with a scale of 60 billion yuan [9] - Sellers estimate that the demand for CPUs from active AI agents will grow exponentially [10] - Tengjing Technology has signed a large order worth nearly 90 million yuan [11] - Related ETFs include Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market: 021716), Software Leaders ETF (on-market: 159899, off-market: 018385), TMT50 ETF (on-market: 159909, off-market: 004409) [11] Autonomous Driving - Guangdong has released policies to support the orderly expansion of high-level autonomous driving road testing and application areas [12] Solid-State Batteries - The third China All-Solid-State Battery Innovation Development Summit Forum will be held on February 7-8 to assess industry strategic directions and technological paths [13] Consumer Policy - The Ministry of Finance has announced the establishment of duty-free shops at 41 ports, including Wuhan Tianhe Airport, to boost consumption [14] Market Dynamics and Funds - The CSI 300 ETF faced significant selling pressure towards the end of trading [15] - Sellers report that Huijin's holdings in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF have decreased, while significant holdings remain in the CSI 300 ETF [15] - Abnormal trading regulations may tighten further, potentially limiting buying permissions for volatile stocks [15] - A Bank of America survey shows that global fund managers' cash holdings have reached a historic low, with risk appetite at a high level, but the bull-bear indicator has entered the "sell" zone [15] - Related ETFs include A500 Index ETF (on-market: 560610, off-market: 022455), Sci-Tech 50 ETF Enhanced (on-market: 588450), CSI 300 ETF (on-market: 561930, off-market: 022504) [15] Strategy Observation - On Wednesday, trading volume was 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating further contraction [15] - Despite a decline in financing data and external market downturns, the market attempted to rally in the morning but fell back in the afternoon under pressure from heavyweight stocks, showing a clear oscillation around the 4100-point mark [15] - The market structure is diverging, with trend-driven sectors led by institutions performing prominently [15] - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals (commodity bull market), electronics (semiconductor packaging, CPU, PCB), and machinery (AI equipment, robotics) are leading the gains [15] - Current trends include semiconductor (especially Sci-Tech attributes), AI hardware, robotics, and chemical cycles, with a relatively healthy rhythm [15] - The CPO sector (especially small and mid-cap stocks) is breaking through following overseas trends; the logic of rising prices for storage and CPUs continues to strengthen [15] - The satellite internet sector has entered a left-side observation interval [15] - The overall market is showing characteristics of "stable index, active structure" under regulatory guidance, focusing on industry prosperity and performance trends [15]