摩根士丹利：黄金对美元霸权的挑战“看不到尽头”

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley indicates that the role of the US dollar in the global system is gradually being weakened, but credible alternative currencies remain limited, making gold the biggest challenger to the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar's Declining Influence - The international influence of the US dollar has declined across multiple indicators, including its share in central bank foreign exchange reserves and its usage in corporate and emerging market sovereign issuances [1] - Despite the decline, the dollar still holds the largest share in global reserves [1] Group 2: Gold's Rising Position - When considering gold, the situation changes significantly; gold's share in central bank holdings has increased from approximately 14% to between 25% and 28%, with this upward trend showing "no signs of slowing down" [1] - Risk premiums and hedging behaviors will continue to exert pressure on the dollar while supporting gold demand [1] Group 3: Policy Factors - The policy factors driving "de-dollarization" are currently in a state of "neutral to slightly accelerating," and the evolution of these policies in the short term will determine how far the de-dollarization trend will go [1]