Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-22 01:27Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Pop Mart (09992) maintains a "buy" rating due to its long-term IP creation and operation mechanism being a core competitive advantage, with the company entering a layout period [1] - The company has a well-established domestic IP tier system and brand recognition, with expected continued growth overseas driven by store openings; expanding product categories, IPs, and business formats remain key growth drivers [1] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 134 billion, 170 billion, and 212 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 294%, 27%, and 25%, with corresponding current P/E ratios of 17.7, 14.0, and 11.2X [1] Group 2 - The domestic market is expected to continue outperforming expectations, driven by brand awareness, healthy IP structure, and a well-developed membership system; the core plush products remain in short supply since the large restock in Q4 2025 [2] - The sales on Douyin have maintained a high growth rate of 239% year-on-year, with the plush toy "Little Horse" becoming the top seller, indicating strong platform capabilities and successful new product launches [2] - New business formats such as jewelry, desserts, and amusement parks are expected to contribute additional growth, solidifying the basic market in China [2] Group 3 - In North America, despite weak consumer spending and a period of adjustment, Q4 performance exceeded previous expectations; new markets in the Middle East and South America are anticipated to follow suit with accelerated store openings [3] - The rapid expansion of new market stores is expected in 2026, supported by a large population base, consumer purchasing power, and potential for store openings, continuing the trend seen in China and Southeast Asia [3]