台积电2025Q4营收同比增长，DRAM价格持续上涨

Core Viewpoint - The data center sector is driving significant growth in the power equipment industry, with capital expenditures showing a high growth trend, particularly among major overseas players, while domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent are experiencing a slowdown in their capital spending [1][3]. Demand Side - Overseas capital expenditures in Q3 2025 reached $99.617 billion, marking an 80.39% year-on-year increase and a 9.54% quarter-on-quarter rise [3]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 31.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.10% year-on-year increase but a decline of 18.55% quarter-on-quarter. The company reiterated its three-year investment framework of 380 billion yuan, indicating potential for further investment [3]. - Tencent's capital expenditure was 13 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter, with a downward revision of its annual guidance, indicating spending below initial expectations [3]. Supply Chain - NVIDIA reported total revenue of $57.006 billion in Q3 2025, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, a historical peak, showing a 24.62% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 66.44% year-on-year increase, accounting for over 89% of total revenue [4]. - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 was 335 billion new Taiwan dollars, a 20.4% year-on-year increase but a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter decline, achieving a record high for the same period [4]. - The CPU price index in November 2025 was 99.04, slightly up from 98.20 in October, while DRAM spot prices surged from $27.14 on November 17, 2025, to $66.50 by January 16, 2026, reflecting a more than 145% increase over two months, indicating strong server demand [4]. Application Side - The number of models in use is steadily increasing, with application deployments becoming more frequent. Token usage from January 5 to January 12, 2026, reached 7.65 trillion, an 18.97% increase from the previous period [4]. - In Q3 2025, the release of models such as Grok4Fast, GPT-5nano, and gpt-oss-20B led to a decline of over 50% in the price of tokens for models scoring above 40 on the ArtificialAnalysis intelligence index [4]. Investment Recommendations - The construction of AI data centers is expected to drive demand for HVDC and SST technologies. The global data center installation capacity is projected to increase by approximately 14 GW in 2024, with major cloud providers maintaining high capital expenditures. TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach $52-56 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 30% [5]. - The increasing power density of data center cabinets is likely to enhance the penetration of HVDC and SST technologies, with smart busbars expected to see widespread adoption [5]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongheng Electric (002364), Oulu Tong (300870), Weiteng Electric (688226), and Sunshine Power (300274). Stocks to watch include Kehua Data (002335), Keda (002518), Kelu Electronics (002121), Magmi Tech (688676), and Sifang Co. (601126) [5].