GEELY AUTO(HK:00175) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2026-01-22 01:45Core Viewpoint - The methanol-based alcohol-hydrogen electric technology is accelerating its entry into the mainstream commercial vehicle market, providing a competitive alternative to pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, and is expected to create a new trillion-level renewable energy sector [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest commercial vehicle market globally, with rapid development expected in electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and methanol technologies, driven by supportive policies and both domestic and export demand [2]. - By 2025, domestic sales of commercial vehicles are projected to reach 3.237 million units, with 871,000 units being new energy commercial vehicles, resulting in a penetration rate of 26.9% [2]. - The current penetration rate of new energy in commercial vehicles is low compared to passenger vehicles, which have surpassed 50% [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The slow development of new energy in commercial vehicles is attributed to the limitations of existing technologies, which do not meet the specific needs of commercial vehicle usage [3]. - The commercial vehicle sector is a significant energy consumer, accounting for over half of vehicle fuel consumption and 56% of CO2 emissions from all vehicles [2]. Group 3: Technological Advantages - The alcohol-hydrogen electric vehicle technology, which utilizes methanol as a liquid hydrogen substitute, has shown practical and economic advantages, making it suitable for various operational conditions [4][5]. - Compared to pure electric vehicles, alcohol-hydrogen electric vehicles offer stronger endurance, less impact from weather conditions, and lower infrastructure costs [5]. - The latest generation of methanol-powered systems has achieved a thermal efficiency of 50.3%, with comprehensive energy costs reduced by 32%-52% compared to diesel vehicles [5]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Policy Support - The existing oil and gas pipeline network can be utilized for low-cost transportation of liquid methanol, and converting existing gas stations to methanol refueling stations is significantly cheaper than building new hydrogen stations [6]. - The Chinese government has introduced over 70 policy documents to support the promotion of methanol vehicles, indicating strong institutional backing for the industry [8][9]. Group 5: Global Trends and Future Outlook - European car manufacturers are increasingly developing methanol as a vehicle fuel, with models expected to enter the market post-2035 [7]. - The global methanol industry is expanding, with 414 ships confirmed to adopt methanol fuel by the end of 2025, indicating a growing acceptance of methanol in various transportation sectors [7]. - The integration of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol is becoming a key pathway for clean energy consumption and industrial innovation [10].