[Table_Title] 吉利汽车业绩预告点评：2025Q1 业绩超预 期，新品周期即将开启 [Table_Title2] 吉利汽车(0175.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 0175 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 19.44/7.31 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,503.60 | | 最新收盘价： | 14.92 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,503.60 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 10,077.78 | 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 11 日 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 4 月 10 日，公司发布"会计政策变更"、"正面盈利预告"两个公告，核心内容如下： 1）"会计政策变更"公告：公司就共同控制下实体企业合并的会计政策变更为合并实体的资产负 债按控股方的现有账面值列账，就 2025 年 2 月 14 日极氪与领克完成的战略整合公告所述的未审 计收益人民币 ...

吉利汽车（0175.HK）系列点评二十四 25Q1 业绩超预期 规模效应驱动盈利改善 2025 年 04 月 11 日 ➢ 事件概述：4 月 10 日，公司发布了"会计政策变更"和"正面盈利预告" 两个公告： 1）"会计政策变更"公告： 0175 就共同控制下实体企业合并的会计政策变更为 合并实体的资产负债按控股方的现有账面值列账。就 2025 年 2 月 14 日极氪与 领克完成的战略整合公告所述的未审计收益人民币 64.7 亿元，在本次会计政策 变更后将不再形成。其余详细的追溯财务调整将会在季报披露。 2）"正面盈利预告"公告：在上述变更后,0175 预计其 2025 年 1 季度的归母利 润为人民币 52-58 亿元，同比增长 220-270%，其中汇兑税后净收益占人民币 20-23 亿元。1 季度的销量增长及新能源业务持续改善带动盈利增长。 ➢ Q1 业绩超预期 规模化提振盈利。2025Q1，公司乘用车累计销量 70.4 万 辆，同比+47.9%；新能源累计 33.9 万辆，同比+135.4%。出口方面，2025Q1 海外销量 8.9 万辆，同比+2.0%，环比-1.3%。按中值计算，2025Q1 归 ...

吉利汽车预计，2025年Q1净利润将达到52-58亿元人民币，较2024年同期大幅增长220%-270%。盈利能力的大幅提升主要得益于集团本季度销量创历史 新高、新能源业务强劲增长、产品结构优化以及规模效应凸显。 4月10日，吉利汽车公布的盈利预告显示： 预计2025年第一季度： 销量创历史新高，出口业务快速扩张 根据公告，第一季度公司业绩大幅增长主要来源于两方面： 吉利汽车表示，报告期内，集团坚定新能源转型，加速全球化战略布局，聚焦全域AI智能化布局，致力于成为具备强大智能制造能力的科技公司。 1. 业务内生增长：第一季度销量创历史新高，特别是新能源业务的强劲增长成为主要推动力。同时，产品结构优化以及规模效应日益凸显，带动公 司整体盈利能力大幅提升。 2. 汇率收益贡献：随着吉利出口业务的快速扩张，外汇汇率波动为公司带来了20-23亿元的税后净收益，这一非经常性收益对本季度业绩提升起到了 显著作用。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 上月，吉利汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.55 HKD based on a PE ratio of 15 times [2] - The report highlights the launch of new models and the advancement in intelligent driving technology, which are expected to enhance sales performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 414,141 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 17,395 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 18,526 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 213.3% in 2024 [4] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, with the Galaxy series achieving a remarkable 290.3% growth [7] - The report indicates that Geely's sales growth is expected to outperform the industry average, which saw a 10% increase in March [7] Model Launches and Innovations - The report details the launch of several new models, including the Galaxy series and the Zeekr brand, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7] - The introduction of the L3 level intelligent driving technology is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance Geely's competitive edge in the market [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to launch five new energy models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix across various segments [7] - The target price is set at 20.55 HKD, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 CNY respectively, with a target price of 19.05 CNY [2] - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million CNY in 2023 to 414,141 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4][8] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million CNY in 2023 to 17,395 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 100.8% in 2024 [4][8] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0% [7] - The Galaxy series saw a remarkable sales increase of 290.3% year-on-year in March [7] - Lynk & Co's sales also grew by 28.6% year-on-year, with the Lynk 900 model set to launch soon [7] Market Position - Geely's market capitalization is approximately 140,685 million HKD, with a total share capital of 1,007,770,000 shares [5] - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China [5]

2025 年 4 月 8 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 目标价(港币) | 17.3 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | | 13.42 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 18.98/7.47 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.39 | | | 浙江吉利控股集 | | | 主要股东 | | 团有限公司 | | | | (39.94%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.61 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.56 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -24.86% | -5.36% 49.40% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-1 ...

2025 年 4 月 8 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | | --- | --- | | 目标价(港币) | 17.3 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/04/07) | | 13.42 | | 恒生指数(2025/04/07) | | 19,828.3 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 18.98/7.47 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 股数(百万) | | 10,077.39 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 1,352.39 | | | 浙江吉利控股集 | | | 主要股东 | | 团有限公司 | | | | (39.94%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 8.61 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.56 | | 一个月 | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) -24.86% | -5.36% 49.40% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. Cumulatively, from January to March, the total wholesale sales reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in March reached 119,696 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 167.2% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6%, with a penetration rate of 51.6%. For the first quarter, cumulative NEV sales were 339,000 units, up 135.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3%, reflecting a gradual realization of profitability improvement driven by new energy [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, the company's total sales were 232,000 vehicles, with the Galaxy brand contributing 90,032 units. The Zeekr brand sold 15,422 units, and Lynk & Co sold 25,293 units [2][3] New Energy Vehicle Strategy - The company plans to launch five new products under the Galaxy brand, including two SUVs and three sedans, with an annual sales target of over 1 million units for the Galaxy brand [2][4] Technological Advancements - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting the pure electric market above 300,000 yuan, while Lynk & Co will focus on hybrid models priced around 200,000 yuan [3][4] - The company is integrating AI technologies into its vehicles, with plans to fully implement its AI strategy across new models [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.02 billion yuan in 2025, 17.78 billion yuan in 2026, and 20.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3% [1][2] - The cumulative wholesale sales for the first three months reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales showing significant growth of 135.4% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3% [2][4] - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting a total sales volume of 710,000 vehicles by 2025 [3][4] - The company is accelerating its AI technology integration, which is expected to boost product sales and reshape its valuation [4] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.02 billion yuan, 17.78 billion yuan, and 20.38 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 364.78 billion yuan in 2025, 439.69 billion yuan in 2026, and 512.83 billion yuan in 2027 [5][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has shown steady improvement in gross margin and has fully integrated intelligent driving technology into its vehicles [1] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025-2027 set at 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.65 HKD [2] - The company aims for a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, representing a 24.5% year-on-year growth [9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 179,204 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 16,632 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 213.3% [4][9] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 3.3 HKD per 10 shares to all shareholders [9] Sales and Market Position - Total vehicle sales reached 2.1767 million units in 2024, marking a 32.0% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 91.9% [9] - The company has set ambitious sales targets for its brands, with specific goals for 吉利 (Geely), 极氪 (Zeekr), and 领克 (Lynk & Co) [9] Future Outlook - The company is set to launch a new cycle of electric vehicles in 2025, with multiple new models planned under its upgraded Galaxy brand [9] - The integration of advanced intelligent driving systems across all new models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [9]