Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-22 01:52Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in silicon and silver prices has intensified profit pressure on photovoltaic (PV) cell and module companies, making the reduction of silver consumption a pressing issue for these firms [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Silver has been in a supply-demand gap since 2019, with a long-term expectation of tight balance due to rigid supply and emerging applications [2]. - The supply side is constrained by limited mining output and slow growth in recycling, with over 80% of silver supply coming from mining [2]. - On the demand side, the resilience of photovoltaic demand, along with growth in AI computing and automotive electronics, is expected to influence silver supply-demand balance significantly [2]. Cost Pressure and Alternatives - The cost of silver paste has reached 19.3% of module costs, making it the largest cost component [2]. - Copper is identified as the most suitable alternative to silver, although challenges such as oxidation and diffusion need to be addressed [3][4]. - Current advancements in silver-coated copper and electroplated copper are promising, with silver-coated copper showing rapid progress and lower capital expenditure [4][5]. Technological Developments - Silver-coated copper has been successfully tested in HJT cells, reducing metallization costs significantly [5]. - The TOPCon cell technology is exploring a dual printing and sintering approach to mitigate the risks associated with high-temperature processes [5]. - Electroplated copper technology is advancing, with significant production progress reported by leading companies [6]. Investment Opportunities - The rapid increase in the penetration of silver-coated copper and copper paste is expected to provide substantial profit elasticity for paste and metal powder companies [7]. - Companies like Juhua Materials and Dike Co., which focus on silver paste, are well-positioned to benefit from the transition to copper alternatives [8]. - Metal powder companies such as BQian New Materials are also expected to see significant growth due to their unique offerings in the copper powder market [8].