连续近16日暴跌！加元显著贬值

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar has entered a significant depreciation phase since 2026, with a notable decline against the Chinese yuan, marking its weakest performance among major currencies at the start of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 19, the exchange rate of the Canadian dollar against the Chinese yuan was 5.0176, representing a cumulative depreciation of approximately 1.55% from 5.0968 on January 1, with a recent low of 5.0012 [1]. - The depreciation of the Canadian dollar has reached its lowest level since March 31 of the previous year, marking the worst performance in nearly 10 months [1]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Dynamics - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely tied to international oil prices, with Canada's oil exports significantly impacting its GDP [3]. - In early 2026, international oil prices have been in a downward trend, with WTI crude oil prices around $56 per barrel and Brent crude between $58-63 per barrel, reflecting a decline of over 30% from early 2025 highs [3]. - The primary reason for the decline in oil prices is the expectation of a global supply surplus, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a daily surplus of approximately 3.84 million barrels in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - Global monetary policy divergence has weakened the attractiveness of the Canadian dollar, as the Bank of Canada maintains a neutral stance while the U.S. Federal Reserve shows signs of potential rate cuts [5]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March reached 51.2% at the beginning of the year, although this probability decreased to 29.6% following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data [5]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between Canada and the U.S. has led to a preference for U.S. dollar assets, increasing pressure on the Canadian dollar [5]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - The Canadian economy is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% in December, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Although employment numbers have increased for four consecutive months, the structure of new jobs is imbalanced, with a reduction of 42,000 part-time jobs offsetting full-time job growth [6]. - Consumer confidence has declined for three consecutive months, and business investment sentiment remains low due to trade uncertainties [6]. Group 5: Geopolitical and Trade Risks - Geopolitical and trade risks are exacerbating the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, particularly with uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Canada trade relations under a potential Trump presidency [7]. - The proposed 10% tariff on most imports could result in an estimated annual loss of approximately 30 billion Canadian dollars for the Canadian economy [7]. - The upcoming review of the USMCA agreement by July 2026 adds further uncertainty, prompting market participants to reduce long positions in the Canadian dollar [7].