后市展望与风险提示

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, with a projected global silver supply-demand gap of 203 million ounces by 2026, making it difficult to quickly alleviate supply-demand conflicts [1] - The initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, along with the further correction of the gold-silver ratio (currently around 50 times), and the long-term resilience of industrial demand are expected to support silver prices in challenging the $100 per ounce mark, with institutions like Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase raising their short-term price targets for silver [1] Group 2 - In the short term, the volatility risk of silver at high levels is increasing due to its small market capitalization and strong dependence on sentiment, making it susceptible to profit-taking and policy changes [1] - If the $94 level is not quickly reclaimed, silver prices may test the support range of $92-$93 [1] - Additionally, downstream photovoltaic companies are accelerating the adoption of cheaper metal alternatives (such as silver-coated copper and electroplated copper technology), with Longi Green Energy expected to mass-produce cheaper metal products by the second quarter of 2026, which may alleviate industrial demand pressure in the long term [1]