21评论丨日本国债为何“跌跌不休”？

Group 1 - The Japanese bond market experienced a significant decline, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 19 basis points, marking the largest increase since 2022 [1] - The 30-year bond yield surged by 26.5 basis points to 3.875%, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 27 basis points to 4.215%, the first time yields exceeded 4% since 1995 [1] - The immediate cause of the bond market turmoil was Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for new elections, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal policy [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming elections are likely to lead to increased government bond issuance, as the budget proposal cannot be approved before the elections, potentially exacerbating the depreciation of the yen [2] - The government's fiscal discipline may weaken, leading to temporary measures that could further pressure the yen and delay the normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan [2] - If the ruling Liberal Democratic Party wins a majority, there may be an acceleration in aggressive fiscal policies, increasing bond issuance and making it harder to reverse the trends of yen depreciation and bond declines [2] Group 3 - Prime Minister Kishida has not addressed high inflation as promised, and the government's fiscal policies rely on increased bond issuance, which could lead to rising prices and further yen depreciation [3] - The depreciation of the yen and declining bond values have prompted investors to sell yen and invest in foreign stocks, with Japanese investments in U.S. ETFs increasing significantly [3] - The Japanese stock market has been rising, attributed to the issuance of deficit bonds, but without improvements in productivity, this could lead to further inflationary pressures [3] Group 4 - The bond market's reaction indicates a clear rejection of the current fiscal policies by the Japanese government, with future bond performance dependent on the outcomes of the February elections [4] - The decline in Japanese bonds has impacted global markets, with U.S. bonds also facing downward pressure due to domestic fiscal issues [4] - Concerns about fiscal stability in Europe and the U.S. may lead to a shift of international funds towards Japan, potentially stabilizing Japanese bond prices in the future [4]