国信证券：维持周大福“优于大市”评级 销售增长进一步加速

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), raising the company's net profit forecast for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by the increasing proportion of high-margin jewelry products [1] Recent Events - The company reported its unaudited key operating data for October to December 2025, showing an overall retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year, accelerating from a 4.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] - Retail value growth in mainland China was 16.9%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a growth of 22.9% [1] Retail Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points from the previous quarter; franchise stores reported a 26.3% increase, accelerating by 17.7 percentage points [2] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales grew by 14.3%, with an acceleration of 8.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - High-margin priced jewelry continues to lead growth, with retail value in mainland China increasing by 59.6%, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company closed 228 stores during the quarter, ending with a total of 5,813 stores, but expects a reduction in store closures by fiscal year 2027, along with contributions from overseas market expansion [2] Product Innovation and Channel Optimization - In the context of rising gold prices, the company has leveraged product innovation and channel optimization to capture growth in priced gold jewelry, which has been a key driver of same-store sales growth [3] - Products priced by weight have also performed well due to pent-up demand and the year-end peak season [3] - The company plans to continue investing in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products, while optimizing store structure and introducing new store formats to boost same-store sales and achieve sustained performance growth [3]