日元贬值助力，日本出口连续第四个月增长

Core Insights - Japan's exports in December increased by 5.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, but exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 11.1%, casting a shadow over the annual growth outlook [1] - The trade surplus for December was 1,057 billion yen, significantly lower than the expected 3,566 billion yen [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports to the U.S. were primarily affected by weak demand for automobiles, auto parts, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, leading to a notable drop in shipments compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a trade agreement reducing tariffs to a baseline of 15%, Japanese automakers continue to face tariff pressures that impact their export performance [2] - In contrast, exports to other Asian regions showed strong performance, with a 10.2% increase in December, driven by robust demand for data center-related products amid the AI boom [1][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The decline in exports to the U.S. has raised concerns among analysts regarding the sustainability of future growth, as the temporary boost from the trade agreement has faded [2] - Japan's overall imports grew by 5.3% in December, surpassing market expectations, while the annual import growth for 2025 is projected at only 0.3%, reflecting lower energy prices [3] - For the full year, Japan's exports are expected to grow by 3.1%, successfully mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs, while the trade deficit is projected to narrow by 52.9% to 2.7 trillion yen [4]