特朗普、卡森·布洛、木头姐均称2026年美股会继续上涨！

Group 1 - The recent decline in the US stock market is considered minor compared to previous gains, with expectations for the market to potentially double in the future [1] - The founder of Muddy Waters, Carson Block, suggests that despite warnings of a potential AI bubble, it is not a good time to bet against tech giants like Nvidia, indicating a preference for long positions over short [1] - Cathie Wood highlights that while the US GDP has been growing, the underlying economic fundamentals have been in decline, suggesting a potential strong rebound in the coming years driven by advancements in AI and robotics [1][2] Group 2 - Historical patterns from the Reagan era indicate that tax cuts and deregulation can significantly boost corporate earnings, which may support the current market environment [2][4] - The US economy's relative advantage and investment returns are expected to attract global capital inflows, further supporting the stock market [2][4] - The current market structure shows strong support for growth stocks, with a lack of clear systemic bubble indicators, making short-selling challenging [4][5] Group 3 - Factors that may limit significant increases in the stock market include persistent inflation and tightening monetary policy, which could suppress valuations [7] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with only 584,000 jobs added in 2025, the lowest since 2020, potentially dragging down economic growth [7] - Geopolitical uncertainties and policy debates, such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve independence, could lead to short-term market volatility [7] Group 4 - The current economic environment resembles the early 1980s, characterized by high interest rates and structural differentiation, leading to a potential for a "choppy bottoming followed by structural growth" rather than a straightforward bull market [8] - Investment focus should be on sectors like AI, semiconductors, and high-dividend value stocks, while avoiding overvalued and underperforming assets [8]