低温液奶新贵君乐宝港股IPO，为中国乳业制造新的增长极

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry has entered a period of adjustment after years of rapid growth, yet companies like Junlebao are achieving rapid development through strong brand foundations, innovative product capabilities, and comprehensive supply chain systems [2] - Junlebao has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in enhancing its influence in the industry [2] - According to Frost & Sullivan, Junlebao ranks third among comprehensive dairy companies in China by retail sales in 2024, indicating its strong market position [2] Financial Performance - Junlebao's total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 19.8 billion in 2024, with RMB 15.1 billion achieved in the first nine months of 2025, demonstrating steady revenue growth [2] - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 600 million in 2023 to RMB 1.16 billion in 2024, reaching RMB 940 million in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [3] - The adjusted net profit margin increased from 3.4% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024, further rising to 6.2% in the first nine months of 2025, showcasing excellent operational quality [3] Market Presence - Junlebao's sales network covers all 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, penetrating approximately 2,200 districts and counties, which accounts for about 77% of the total county-level administrative regions [3][4] - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with over 5,500 distributors, enabling its products to reach around 400,000 retail endpoints for low-temperature liquid milk and 70,000 for formula milk [4] Product Focus - The low-temperature liquid milk segment, including fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt, is the fastest-growing area in the Chinese dairy market, driven by rising health awareness and technological advancements [5] - Junlebao's "Yuexianhuo" brand has become the top player in the high-end fresh milk market with a market share of 24.0% in 2024, while its "Jianchun" brand leads the low-temperature yogurt market [5] Operational Strengths - Junlebao operates a fully integrated model covering dairy farming, R&D, production, and distribution, with 33 modern owned farms and 20 production facilities, ranking third in dairy cattle inventory in China [6] - The company achieved a self-sufficiency rate of 66% for milk sources in 2024, the highest among large comprehensive dairy enterprises in China, ensuring product quality and safety [6] Industry Outlook - The Chinese dairy market is projected to reach RMB 653.5 billion in 2024, with per capita consumption at only 40.5 kg, indicating significant long-term growth potential [7] - The penetration rate of low-temperature liquid milk is expected to increase from 25.3% in 2024 to 31.8% by 2029, representing a key growth avenue [7] - Funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used for factory construction, capacity expansion, brand marketing, channel development, and enhancing R&D and digitalization efforts [7]