南山铝业国际(02610.HK):印尼电解铝规划公布 开启电解铝一体化新篇章
Ge Long Hui·2026-01-22 05:05

Company Overview - The company plans to start construction of a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in 2026 with an investment of $437 million and a construction period of 2 years [1] - In the long term, the company aims to develop a plan for an additional 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project to further enhance its production capacity [1] - The strategic goal is to gradually increase electrolytic aluminum capacity to match the company's existing capacities in electrolytic aluminum and alumina [1] Industry Position - The company is the leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia, with an established alumina production capacity of 4 million tons per year in Indonesia [1] - The announcement of the new electrolytic aluminum capacity marks the company's official transition to an integrated electrolytic aluminum producer, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] Competitive Advantages - Raw Material Cost Advantage: The company benefits from abundant bauxite and coal resources in Indonesia, leading to low-cost bauxite supply and short-distance transportation advantages [1] - Regional Advantage: The project is located in the Karangbata Economic Zone in Indonesia, which offers a 20-year tax incentive and proximity to the Malacca Strait, facilitating product distribution across Southeast Asia and to the Eurasian continent [1] - Upstream and Downstream Synergy: As the electrolytic aluminum capacity is gradually released, the company is expected to form an integrated supply chain from alumina to electrolytic aluminum, enhancing synergy and risk resilience [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, while the net profit for 2027 has been increased by 15% to $500 million due to rising product prices [2] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.7x for 2025, 11.1x for 2026, and 10.9x for 2027 [2] - The target price is maintained at HKD 77.76, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.0x for 2026 and 11.7x for 2027, indicating an 8% upside potential from the current stock price [2]