研报掘金丨方正证券：维持保利发展“推荐”评级，土地储备丰富，现金流充足

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 79.49% due to market fluctuations and significant asset impairment losses [1] Financial Performance - The decline in profit is primarily influenced by two factors: a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate project turnover and an anticipated total asset impairment and credit impairment loss of about 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce net profit by approximately 4.2 billion yuan [1] - Excluding the impairment factors, the company's net profit for the year is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with an estimated net profit of about 3.3 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, indicating an improvement in quarterly operations [1] Market Position and Financial Health - Despite a year-on-year decline in sales and land acquisition, the company maintains its leading position in the industry [1] - Financing costs remain low, highlighting the advantages of state-owned enterprise credit, and the company has ample liquidity reserves [1] - As a leading state-owned developer, the company has rich land reserves and strong cash flow [1]