丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 核心城市房价行至何处？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 经历明显下跌之后，当前核心城市正处传统旺季，房价亦有一定修复，后续怎么看？1）趋势上 可能仍有压力。理性视角下，房租增长预期是住房定价的核心矛盾，房租不增长或低增长背景 下，住房持有回报率与机会成本仍有倒挂，购房自住成本仍明显高于租房。2）结构上可能分化 加大。部分高总价的稀缺房产将受益于通胀交易，核心区域部分低总价房产的租金回报率已具 备一定优势，与月供负担较为接近，对刚需群体的吸引力明显提升。3）斜率上可能逐步趋缓。 房价调整的时间和空间已不算小，买卖双方的心态均有一定缓和，行业最悲观的时候正在过去。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 止跌回稳的政策目标对市场预期曾有明显提振，但去年 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加大，政策 阈值逐步临近，改善和稳定房市预期具备战略意义，产业政策宽 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 12 周 楼市热度维持高涨，核心城市企稳可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-22 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 邢莘 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 | | | 021-38003638 | | | xingshen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 谢淼 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | | ...

证券研究报告·行业月报·房地产 房地产行业月报 开发投资降幅收窄，市场逐步探底向稳 2026 年 03 月 22 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 行业走势 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2025/3/24 2025/7/22 2025/11/19 2026/3/19 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《政策驱动存量盘活，城市更新重要 性提升》 2026-03-12 证券分析师 姜好幸 执业证书：S0600525110001 jianghx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘汪 执业证书：S0600526030001 liuwang@dwzq.com.cn 《基于 OpenClaw 的房地产股票投研 生产力提升实践》 2026-03-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 开发投资降幅收窄，新开工竣工延续调整。2026 年 1-2 月，全国房地产 累计开发投资 9612 亿元，同比变化-11.1%，降幅较 2025 年全年收窄 6.1pct，房企投资态度在市场调整中保持谨慎但降 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market remains robust, with stabilization expected in core cities [1] - The industry rating is maintained at "Buy" [2] Policy Overview - The central bank has kept the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, while local governments are optimizing housing fund policies, including subsidies for home purchases in cities like Shaoxing [6][17] - Local policies include increased housing fund withdrawal limits and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [19][21] Transaction Performance - New home transaction volume in 49 cities reached 350.85 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 20.2%, but a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [22][23] - Second-hand home transactions have shown a week-on-week increase of 2.3%, marking five consecutive weeks of growth [22] Market Sentiment - The new home supply has decreased by 22% week-on-week, while the transaction volume has exceeded the new supply, indicating improved absorption rates [6] - The average price of second-hand homes is stable at 10,176 yuan per square meter, with expectations for positive price trends in the coming month [6] Land Market Performance - Land supply has increased, with transaction revenue from residential land in 300 cities reaching 21.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2.0% [6] - The land transaction area was 7.2 million square meters, with a weekly transaction conversion rate of 64% [6] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Major companies in the sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable values set at 7.64 yuan and 16.02 yuan per share, respectively [7] - The report highlights the financial metrics of various companies, including EPS and PE ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [7] C-REITs Market Overview - The C-REITs sector saw a slight decline in the comprehensive return index by 0.06%, with 39 out of 78 REITs experiencing gains [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The government work report emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, reiterating policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, with expectations for future mortgage rate cuts and relaxation of housing restrictions [2][3] - The report highlights the orderly promotion of the construction of "good houses," which is expected to be a medium-term trend, benefiting companies with strong inventory structure and product capabilities [2][3] - Short-term market performance is expected to improve with the traditional peak sales season approaching, and there is a recommendation to focus on companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities [2][3] Policy Summary - The 2026 government work report continues to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, exploring multiple channels to revitalize existing housing stock, and encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [4][5] - Shanghai's regulatory policies are being continuously relaxed, including adjustments to purchase conditions and loan policies for non-local residents [5] Financial Summary - In February 2026, M2 growth was 9% year-on-year, and social financing stock growth was 8.2%, with a decrease in new long-term loans for residents [9][10] - The average issuance rate for domestic bonds was 2.59%, while overseas bonds had an average issuance rate of 4.3% [10] Market Performance - As of March 17, 2026, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 31.7% year-on-year, while the transaction volume of second-hand homes improved by 64.9% month-on-month [12] - The real estate sector's PE ratio (TTM) is 71.94, significantly higher than the 14.16 of the CSI 300, indicating a high valuation level [36][38] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and others with strong financial health and stable cash flow [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - New and second-hand housing transactions have increased on a month-on-month basis, with new housing transactions up by 42% and second-hand housing transactions up by 25% in the latest week [5][19] - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the real estate market, including a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [5][19] Industry Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,216.63 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,165.62 billion [2] - The real estate index fell by 0.5% in the latest week, ranking 14th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] Sales Performance - In the latest week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 monitored cities was 24.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 172 million square meters, reflecting a 42% increase month-on-month but a 13% decrease year-on-year [19][21] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 monitored cities was 30.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 212 million square meters, showing a 25% increase month-on-month but an 18% decrease year-on-year [24][27] Policy Developments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to housing provident fund policies in Fuzhou and Chengdu, aimed at encouraging home purchases and increasing loan limits for homebuyers [13][15] Company Dynamics - Poly Developments acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 1.586 billion, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.1% [16] - Greentown China successfully acquired residential land in Ningbo for 467 million, with a premium of 5.89% [16] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 10.05 billion for February 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has officially entered a new development stage of "stabilization and quality upgrade" in 2025, with significant improvements in delivery capabilities and buyer confidence [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The central government continues to deepen the real estate financing whitelist system, with over 7.5 million historically delayed housing units completed and the pilot of selling completed homes expanding [1] - The asset-liability structure of companies has substantially improved, with a stable delivery pattern characterized by quality upgrades and steady volume [1] - Leading real estate companies have stabilized their delivery scales, and the ability of distressed companies to fulfill commitments has significantly recovered [1] Group 2: Delivery Capability Assessment - The "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Delivery Capability TOP 50" evaluates companies based on total delivery scale, timeliness, satisfaction, and completeness of delivery systems [13] - The top 50 companies have become the main force in ensuring delivery, with an increasing proportion of high-quality improvement projects [16] Group 3: Policy and Mechanisms - The central government has established a long-term policy mechanism for the real estate market, focusing on ensuring delivery, preventing risks, and stabilizing expectations [15] - Key measures include the normalization of the real estate financing whitelist, full-cycle supervision of pre-sale funds, and the expansion of the completed home sales pilot [15] Group 4: Delivery Quality and Experience - Delivery capability has evolved from merely "on-time delivery" to a comprehensive ability encompassing full-process systems, precision craftsmanship, and full-cycle services [19] - The delivery process now integrates design and operation, creating a complete loop that enhances the value from "building good homes" to "living well" [19] Group 5: Notable Delivery Projects - The top delivery projects of 2025 include high-end, light luxury, and quality works, showcasing the industry's focus on quality and customer experience [6][9][11] - Notable projects include "Poly Tianrui" in Guangzhou and "Beijing Yuefu," reflecting the industry's commitment to high standards [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Insights - The overall data for January-February 2026 shows a narrowing year-on-year growth rate, with significant changes in the land market, which is expected to be a key observation indicator for the year [2]. - The report highlights that the improvement in the land market is driven by quality adjustments, indicating a potential easing of financial pressures on real estate companies [54]. - The report emphasizes that low-inventory real estate companies that adapt to new supply standards are the core selection moving forward [53]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Overview - In January-February 2026, the total real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous year [12][41]. - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount fell by 20.2%, indicating a continuous decline but with signs of stabilization [25][41]. 2. Development Investment and Sales - The report notes that the new construction area saw a year-on-year decline of 23.1%, and the completion area decreased by 27.9%, with both declines expanding compared to the previous year [17][25]. - The funding sources for real estate development decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans down by 13.9% and personal mortgage loans down by 41.9% [41][43]. 3. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the land market's improvement suggests a potential increase in supply, which may impact the ongoing inventory reduction pressures [54]. - The differentiation in sales performance between first-tier and second-tier cities is noted, with first-tier cities experiencing a more significant decline in sales [31][29]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development among others, highlighting their adaptability to new supply standards [53][59].

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 17 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 38 号文要求新增用地与存量盘活挂钩，上海二手房成交活跃 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/3/7-26/3/13） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.7%、深证成指上升 0.8%、创业板指上升 2.5%、沪深 300 上 升 0.2%、房地产（申万）下跌 0.5%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：京投发展(+25.0%)、 西藏城投(+13.4%)、*ST 阳光(+9.3%)、首开股份(+9.2%)、沙河股份(+9.0%)，涨跌幅后五的 分别为：财信发展(-8.6%)、*ST 荣控(-8.2%)、特发服务(-6.5%)、新黄浦(-5.7%)、深深房 A(-5.3%)。 联系人 数据跟 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].