兴业银行(601166)：营收利润双增 业绩筑底回升

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Bank disclosed its preliminary performance report for 2025, showing positive growth in both revenue and profit. The operating income increased by 0.24% year-on-year, with a growth rate rebound of 2.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 0.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate rebound of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025. In Q4 2025, operating income increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with a significant growth rate rebound of 8.1 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a growth rate rebound of 1.4 percentage points compared to Q3 2025 [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, total assets and total loans increased by 5.6% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates changing by +2.0 percentage points and -0.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025. Total assets exceeded 11 trillion yuan [2]. - In Q4, the increase in assets primarily came from non-credit assets, with total loan scale decreasing by 41 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decline of 36 billion yuan. Non-credit asset scale increased by 461.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 256 billion yuan [2]. - The credit structure is continuously optimized, with technology finance loans exceeding 1.12 trillion yuan (over 18.8% of total loans), green finance loans reaching 1.1 trillion yuan (approximately 18.5% of total loans), and manufacturing loans nearing 1 trillion yuan (approximately 16.8% of total loans), all leading among joint-stock banks [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Risk Management - The total liabilities at the end of 2025 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 2.2 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025. Total deposits increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The increase in liabilities in Q4 mainly came from active liabilities, with total deposit scale growing by 94.8 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5 billion yuan. Active liabilities increased by 314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 234.9 billion yuan [2]. - The asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, unchanged from the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio is 228.41%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points from the end of Q3 2025. The provision-to-loan ratio is 2.47%, up 1 basis point from the end of Q3 2025. Risks in the three major areas of real estate, local government platforms, and credit cards are showing signs of convergence [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - On January 20, the company held a temporary shareholders' meeting and approved an interim dividend, proposing to distribute a cash dividend of 5.65 yuan (pre-tax) for every 10 shares to all ordinary shareholders, with an expected total cash dividend of 11.957 billion yuan. Based on the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 39.827 billion yuan disclosed in the 2025 semi-annual report, the interim dividend ratio is estimated to be 30.02% [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 project net profit growth rates of 3.12% and 4.83%, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) of 3.58 and 3.77 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 5.47X and 5.21X for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.49X and 0.46X for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Considering historical PB valuation and fundamental conditions, the company is given a reasonable value of 22.99 yuan per share at 0.60 times PB [3].