经济意外收缩倒逼韩国出手？花旗预测：68亿美元新刺激计划或于3月落地

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts that South Korea may introduce a new fiscal stimulus plan worth approximately 10 trillion won (equivalent to 6.8 billion USD) as early as March to address uneven economic growth, with expected support for cultural and artistic sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Context - South Korea's economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to widespread demand shrinkage, highlighting significant challenges for policymakers [1] - The implementation of growth-stimulating measures is constrained by the weakening won and rising financial stability risks [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Insights - The South Korean government may utilize excess tax revenue to arrange additional budget expenditures without issuing new bonds [1] - Conflicting signals have emerged regarding the new fiscal support, with the presidential policy chief stating that there are currently no plans for an additional budget, while President Yoon Suk-yeol indicated potential opportunities for extra spending policies [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Stance - The Bank of Korea has shifted its monetary policy stance to neutral, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and removing references to potential rate cuts, signaling a focus on financial stability [1] Group 4: Economic Impact of Stimulus - The new stimulus plan is estimated to account for about 0.4% of South Korea's GDP and is expected to boost economic growth by approximately 0.07 to 0.15 percentage points over the next four quarters [2]