1月降息概率仅5%！美联储“按兵不动”信号明确，金价4800点位如何对冲？

Group 1 - The CME "Fed Watch" data indicates a 95% probability of maintaining interest rates in January, with a significant reduction in expectations for rate cuts in March, reflecting a market consensus that the Fed has no immediate reason to change its stance [2][4] - The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by March is only 20.6%, a stark contrast to the overly optimistic sentiment at the end of last year, with only a 0.9% chance for a 50 basis point cut, suggesting a prolonged high interest rate environment [2][4] Group 2 - The market's shift away from aggressive rate cut bets is primarily due to the resilience of U.S. economic data, with employment and consumption remaining stable, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach [4][5] - Despite high interest rates, gold prices remain robust, as the focus shifts from "when to cut rates" to whether rate hikes have peaked, reducing the marginal pressure on gold [4][5] Group 3 - Key factors supporting gold's resilience include the non-linear characteristics of falling inflation, persistent core inflation, and service prices that have not yet reached levels that would allow the Fed to declare victory [5] - The longer high interest rates persist, the greater the pressure on fiscal debt and asset valuations, enhancing gold's value as a non-credit-dependent asset amid these potential risks [7] Group 4 - For ordinary investors, the probability data serves as a tool for managing expectations, emphasizing the need to abandon aggressive easing assumptions and accept a potentially slower pace of monetary easing [8] - Gold should be viewed as a stabilizer in asset allocation, particularly in an environment marked by geopolitical tensions and debt risks, focusing on broader trends rather than single-point probabilities [8][10] Group 5 - The CME data reflects a return to reality from excessive optimism rather than an escalation of tightening, positioning gold as a form of insurance in a complex world [10] - Investors are encouraged to assess their risk tolerance and consider gold as a means to balance portfolio volatility, acknowledging that while rate cuts may be delayed, the uncertainty in the global financial order has made gold a necessity [10]