LIHUA(SZ:300761) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-22 06:42Core Viewpoint - The price of yellow chickens has decreased year-on-year, leading to a decline in the company's performance for 2025, with expected net profit dropping by 61%-64% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5-6 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 61%-64% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 5.3-5.9 billion yuan, also down by 61%-65% [1] - For Q4, the expected net profit is between 2.6-3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13%-27%, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.4-3 billion yuan, down by 20%-36% [1] Group 2: Sales and Production - In 2025, yellow chicken output is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, with sales revenue approximately 14.3 billion yuan, remaining flat compared to the previous year, and an average selling price of 11.4 yuan/kg, down by 12% [2] - The total yellow chicken output for 2025 is projected to be around 567 million birds, with a profit from yellow chicken operations estimated at 2.3-2.8 billion yuan [2] - In Q4, yellow chicken output is expected to be about 150 million birds, with a sales price of approximately 12.3 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% [2] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The company maintains a leading position in breeding and cost efficiency, with a projected output increase of 8%-10% in 2026 [3] - In 2025, pig output is expected to grow by 63% year-on-year, generating revenue of about 3.6 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.9 yuan/kg, down by 21% [3] - The estimated cost of pig production is around 12.5 yuan/kg, with an average profit of 160-170 yuan per head, leading to an overall profit from pig operations of approximately 3.2-3.5 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue improving breeding costs due to enhanced production metrics such as litter rate, daily weight gain, and survival rate [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.69, 1.91, and 2.27 yuan per share, respectively, with a target price of 28.72 yuan per share based on a 15X PE ratio for 2026 [3]