达沃斯论坛对大宗商品的影响

Group 1 - The new order revealed at the Davos Forum indicates intensified competition and resource battles, with commodities showing a "polarized" pattern driven by supply-demand mismatches and policy expectations [1] - Precious metals are in a solid bull market, with silver showing better elasticity due to rising Fed rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Silver's demand is surging due to photovoltaic needs and global inventory shortages, with domestic export controls widening the supply-demand gap, targeting a price of 25,000 yuan/kg for silver [1] Group 2 - The energy and industrial metals sector is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with a confirmed oversupply in crude oil leading to a downward price adjustment [1] - Copper is supported by AI computing power and electricity grid investment demand, with limited supply growth from mines, making it a strategic long position [1] - Aluminum benefits from reduced costs and capacity constraints, presenting a stable long position choice [1] Group 3 - Current data shows that U.S. employment and inflation are slowing, but some sectors are improving under the influence of Fed rate cuts, leading to a cautious outlook [3] - Concerns over trade friction and geopolitical risks are driving funds to preemptively allocate to precious metals, supporting prices amid rising forecasts from major global institutions [4] - The market is expected to be influenced more by U.S. economic data affecting Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disturbances, with gold maintaining a strong oscillating trend above the 20-day moving average [4]