美股被特朗普新闻搞得七上八下！高盛：经济有支撑，但别追涨要抄底

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' hedge fund coverage head, Tony Pasquariello, asserts that despite short-term volatility and crowded investor positions, the U.S. economic fundamentals are strong, and the macro outlook is "essentially favorable" for the stock market, advocating for a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing rallies [1][9]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - Market sentiment has shifted dramatically from euphoria to anxiety since January, with the S&P 500 index volatility at only 6% and the MOVE index at multi-year lows before recent changes [1][4]. - The transition from extreme calm to volatility is highlighted as a typical case for January, with significant geopolitical and technological changes causing rapid market reactions [4]. Investor Positioning - Investor positioning is at historical highs, with both retail and institutional investors increasing risk exposure across various metrics, including individual stocks and index futures [3][7]. - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey indicates that investor optimism has reached its highest level since November 2024 [3][7]. Economic Fundamentals - Despite short-term disruptions, the core elements supporting the market include accelerating U.S. economic growth and increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve, which are key macro drivers for the stock market in the medium term [3][8]. - Recent economic data shows positive trends, such as the ISM services index rising to 54.4, initial jobless claims dropping to 198,000, and various housing indicators stabilizing [8]. Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy is to adopt a "cautiously bullish" stance, focusing on buying on dips rather than chasing prices higher, as the macro outlook supports the stock market but current risk-reward ratios are challenging [9]. - The market faces contradictions between short-term disturbances, such as tariff news and global bond market volatility, and medium-term benefits from U.S. economic acceleration and improved liquidity [9].