透视张坤四季报：减持白酒，看好房价筑底与内需潜力

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, a well-known fund manager, has disclosed the latest holdings and layout views of his four funds, indicating a reduction in management scale despite positive performance over the past year [1][3] Fund Performance - The four funds managed by Zhang Kun reported respective increases of 6.86%, 8.46%, 11.75%, and 41.87% in 2025 [3] - The total management scale of Zhang Kun's funds decreased to approximately 48.38 billion yuan, a decline of 14.43% from the previous quarter and 17.91% from the end of 2024 [3] Stock Holdings - The funds slightly increased their equity investment ratios by 1% to 3% in Q4 2025 [3] - Major reductions were observed in holdings of leading liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, with a reduction of around 5% in Q4 compared to a 10% reduction in Q3 [3][4] Sector Adjustments - Significant reductions were also noted in holdings of JD Health and Focus Media, with some funds reducing JD Health shares by approximately 50% [4] - The funds adjusted their sector allocations, maintaining positions in companies with strong business models and competitive advantages while reducing exposure in sectors like real estate, pharmaceuticals, and computing [5][6] Real Estate Market Outlook - Zhang Kun expressed that the decline in housing prices in major cities is likely nearing its end, influenced by low-risk interest rates and potential policy support [7][8] - The negative impact of declining housing prices on consumer wealth and spending is expected to improve, leading to a potential increase in consumer willingness to spend [7][8] Consumer Market Insights - The domestic consumption has been weak in recent years, but long-term projections suggest significant improvements in living standards and social security levels over the next decade [7][8] - The growth rate of per capita GDP in China is expected to exceed the global average, supporting a stronger domestic demand environment [7][8] AI and Innovation - A strong domestic market is seen as crucial for promoting technological innovation, with the potential for domestic companies to attract global resources and talent [9] - Confidence remains high in the business models and cash flow capabilities of companies within the fund's portfolio, despite concerns about market conditions [9]