收益率曲线陡峭化

Group 1 - The monetary policy has implemented structural interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 0.25 percentage points for various structural monetary policy tools, optimizing some tools, and increasing their quotas to support key strategic areas and weak links [2] - The fiscal policy aims for a more proactive approach, with a budget deficit rate expected to remain around 4% in 2026, and the issuance of special long-term bonds projected to increase by 200 billion to 500 billion, reaching between 1.5 trillion and 1.8 trillion [2] - A package of policies focused on boosting domestic demand has been introduced, including interest subsidies for loans to small and micro enterprises, a special guarantee plan of 500 billion for private enterprise loans, and measures to lower the threshold for private enterprise bond issuance [3] Group 2 - The economy is expected to maintain resilience with a GDP growth rate of 5.0% in 2025, highlighting structural optimization and the growth of new economic drivers, despite weaknesses in traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure [4] - Consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, the highest since March 2023, while core CPI remained above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [4] - The bond market is experiencing wide fluctuations due to a combination of loose funding, improving economic conditions, and rising prices, with expectations of a steepening yield curve as long-term bonds underperform relative to short-term bonds [5]