别管Q4业绩了，特斯拉下周财报的最大看点是机器人和自动驾驶

Core Insights - The focus of investors is shifting from traditional financial metrics to advancements in Tesla's cutting-edge technologies such as robotaxi, unsupervised autonomous driving, the Optimus humanoid robot, and AI5 chips ahead of the upcoming Q4 earnings report on the 29th [1][2] Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a significant divergence in market expectations for Tesla's key financial metrics in 2026, forecasting deliveries of 1.6 million vehicles, which is 9% lower than market consensus and a 2.5% year-over-year decline [1] - The firm predicts a cash flow consumption of $1.5 billion for Tesla in 2026, contrasting sharply with the market consensus of a positive $3.1 billion [1] - The anticipated increase in capital expenditures for 2026 is not fully reflected in market expectations, leading to a forecasted automotive gross margin (excluding carbon credits) of 14.2%, below the market's 15.0% expectation [1] Technological Developments - Tesla's launch of an unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, is seen as a critical catalyst for validating its autonomous driving technology and safety [2][3] - The Cybercab production is set to begin in April 2026, with updates on its production timeline being closely monitored as it represents a key product in Tesla's transition from traditional automotive manufacturing to mobility services [3] Autonomous Driving Progress - The cumulative mileage of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has surged from approximately 90 million miles in 2022 to around 7.4 billion miles currently, indicating significant improvements in product quality [4] - The next major breakthrough is expected with the rollout of a more robust "eyes-off" experience (unsupervised FSD), anticipated to be phased in throughout 2026 [4] - The decision to convert FSD to a subscription service may signal the introduction of tiered FSD products and pricing strategies, with global subscription rates projected to rise from 12% to 17.5% by year-end [4] AI and Robotics Updates - Anticipation surrounds updates on Tesla's AI5 chip design and its projects like AI6+ and Dojo during the earnings call [5] - The third-generation Optimus humanoid robot is expected to debut in February or March 2026, becoming an increasingly important aspect of Tesla's narrative and valuation [5] - Morgan Stanley assigns a valuation of $60 per share for the Optimus business under a baseline scenario, with a potential bull case valuation of $225 per share [5] Synergies within Musk's Empire - The report highlights the clearer integration of Elon Musk's other ventures with Tesla, with market expectations for updates on how these businesses will achieve synergies in the future [6] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "hold" rating on Tesla with a target price of $425, based on various components including core automotive business, network services, mobility services, energy business, and humanoid robots [6] Valuation Scenarios - In a bear market scenario, Morgan Stanley sets a target price of $145, while in a bull market scenario, the target could reach $860, reflecting the uncertainties Tesla faces in its transition from a traditional automaker to an AI and robotics company [9]