瑞银：财政扩张与货币政策不确定性共振，日债收益率上行空间仍存

Group 1 - UBS believes that the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields reflects market expectations for future policy rate increases and an increase in term premium, rather than just the anticipated rise in policy rates [1] - The report indicates that the rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely related to uncertainties in fiscal policy, with market expectations for long-term policy rates being difficult to gauge [4] - UBS's analysis shows that the volatility in the Japanese government bond market has not yet created a sustained spillover effect on global markets, despite a significant rise in yields [7] Group 2 - Foreign investors have significantly reduced their holdings in the Japanese government bond market, nearly halving their investments as global yields rise [8] - UBS suggests that investors may find better entry points for Japanese government bonds after the elections and the resolution of monetary policy uncertainties [12] - Overall, the report emphasizes the complexity of the Japanese government bond market under the dual influence of fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal expansion being the main driver of rising yields [12]