IMF: 央行数字货币对货币操作的影响

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on monetary operations, focusing on the challenges central banks may face when introducing CBDCs and how these could impact liquidity supply and demand, as well as short-term interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: CBDC Scenarios - The analysis is based on three scenarios where CBDC could replace cash, commercial bank deposits, or central bank reserves, with the likelihood of each scenario depending on CBDC design features such as accessibility, holding limits, and interest rates [3][9]. - Each scenario's impact on the balance sheets of central banks, banking sectors, and non-banking sectors is examined to understand its effects on reserve demand and short-term interest rates [3][10]. Group 2: Monetary Operations Overview - Central banks aim for price stability, employing various monetary policy frameworks, including inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, and monetary targeting, with most developed and emerging economies favoring inflation targeting [4][5]. - Monetary operations involve tools to implement these policies, relying on commercial banks as key intermediaries, with major tools including open market operations, standing facilities, reserve requirements, and foreign exchange interventions [6][4]. Group 3: Impact on Short-Term Interest Rates - In the first scenario, CBDC replacing cash has limited direct impact on short-term interest rates, but its demand may be more volatile than cash, complicating liquidity forecasts [11]. - The second scenario, where CBDC replaces bank deposits, could significantly affect short-term interest rates due to reduced reserves in the banking system, leading to potential upward pressure on rates [11][16]. - The third scenario suggests that if CBDC is treated similarly to reserves, short-term interest rates may not be significantly impacted, as the total amount of central bank liabilities remains unchanged [11][16]. Group 4: Adjustments in Monetary Operations and CBDC Design - Central banks may need to enhance liquidity forecasting models and adjust operational frameworks in response to CBDC demand volatility, including shifting to fixed-rate operations and increasing intra-day adjustment windows [14][16]. - Adjustments to CBDC design can mitigate adverse effects on monetary operations, such as limiting access to households or setting holding limits to control deposit substitution [18][19]. Group 5: Considerations for Exchange Rate and Monetary Targeting - If CBDC is accessible to non-residents, it may increase domestic currency liquidity, potentially leading to appreciation pressures or increased exchange rate volatility [19]. - CBDC could alter the stable relationship between base money and broad money, affecting inflation levels and complicating policies targeting monetary aggregates [20]. Conclusion - The introduction of CBDC raises concerns regarding monetary operations, including challenges in liquidity forecasting and potential deviations of market interest rates from policy targets. Adjusting operational frameworks and carefully designing CBDCs can help mitigate these adverse effects while balancing the goals of CBDC development [20].