SAIC MOTOR(SH:600104) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-22 08:34Core Viewpoint - SAIC Motor Corporation is experiencing a resurgence in sales and profitability, but the stock market response has been tepid, raising questions about the sustainability of its financial performance and market confidence [4][5][6]. Group 1: Sales and Profitability - In 2025, SAIC's wholesale vehicle sales reached 4.5075 million units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.3%, closing the gap with BYD to about 100,000 units [4][6]. - The company projected a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 billion to 11 billion yuan for the previous year, representing a staggering year-on-year increase of 438% to 558% [4][6]. - However, in 2024, SAIC's net profit plummeted to less than 1.7 billion yuan, marking a significant decline in profitability [5][6]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Stock Performance - SAIC's market capitalization peaked at nearly 440 billion yuan eight years ago but has since dropped to around 170 billion yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 270 billion yuan in value [4][6][33]. - Despite a recovery in sales and profits, SAIC's stock price has remained stagnant, with a cumulative decline of 26.37% even as it surpassed BYD in sales during certain periods [4][6][43]. Group 3: Profit Quality and Concerns - The substantial profit increase in 2023 was partly due to a low base from previous asset impairment losses, which reduced net profit by approximately 7.87 billion yuan [5][7]. - A significant portion of the profit increase was attributed to a transaction involving MG Motor India, which added 5.178 billion yuan to net profit but was not a reflection of new cash earnings [7][8]. - The reliance on joint venture brands for revenue has been a concern, as their contribution to total revenue has been declining, impacting overall profitability [6][8][10]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Strategy - SAIC's NEV sales have been increasing, with 1.643 million units sold in 2025, but this has not translated into significant revenue growth compared to competitors like BYD [9][10][22]. - The company faces challenges in the NEV market, particularly with its investments in brands like Feifan and Zhiji, which have struggled to meet sales targets [23][24][50][51]. - Upcoming models, such as the Shangjie Z7 and H7, are seen as potential game-changers for SAIC in the competitive NEV landscape [52][53].