ATFX：需求预期上修难掩供应过剩，油价震荡偏强

Group 1 - The core logic of the oil market this week revolves around two main lines: the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand growth forecast, providing support for sentiment, while supply expansion and continuous inventory accumulation still exert substantial pressure on oil prices [1] - The IEA has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast for this year from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, slightly higher than last year's increase of 850,000 barrels per day, reflecting a slight improvement in the global economic outlook [1] - In contrast to the improvement in demand, the supply side remains loose, with the IEA raising its global oil supply growth forecast to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly exceeding the demand increase, indicating that the global oil market is still in a "supply outpacing demand" state [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to add about 1.2 million barrels per day in supply for the year, while non-OPEC+ countries are projected to add approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, with supply expansion outside of OPEC+ remaining a significant variable for the mid-term oil market [1] - Recent inventory data reinforces the "supply exceeds demand" judgment, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting an increase of about 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, indicating persistent supply-side pressure [1] - On the technical side, WTI crude oil has broken out of a medium-term downward channel, with key support established in the $58.8–$59.0 range, and the price is expected to test the $62.0–$62.5 resistance zone [3]