Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices fell below the support level of $4800 due to a decrease in market risk appetite following Trump's change in stance on Greenland [2] - Trump announced the cancellation of threatened tariffs on European countries, indicating a framework for future agreements regarding Greenland, which may ease trade tensions [2] - Despite the temporary agreement, underlying distrust between the US and Europe remains, with geopolitical and economic risks still present [2] - Technically, gold has not broken below the moving average support, indicating potential for further price movement [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is currently in a state of adjustment, with geopolitical risks providing less support to oil prices, while oversupply remains a significant issue [3] - The IEA's latest report predicts a slight increase in global oil demand, with growth expected to rise from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day this year [3] - Global oil supply growth has been adjusted to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from a previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day, but still lower than last year's 3 million barrels per day [3] - Technically, oil prices are experiencing small upward movements but face resistance above, indicating potential for long-term volatility [3] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has shown weakness recently, with improved US-EU relations failing to provide strong support due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market expects a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January, with expectations for rate cuts to begin in June [4] - Core PCE inflation in the US has risen to 2.8%, above the 2% target, which may justify the Fed's decision to maintain current rates in the short term [5] - The dollar index is experiencing a short-term bullish trend but faces long-term bearish pressures due to expected rate cuts [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has closed with a bullish candle, indicating a potential reversal from previous downward trends, with clear support at lower levels [6] - The price has re-entered a previous trading range, suggesting a trend reversal may be underway [6] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown small fluctuations but are likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with a potential downward continuation pattern forming [7] - Short-term support is noted at $5.60, indicating a critical level to watch for price movements [7]
百利好晚盘分析：地缘风险下降 黄金应声回落
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-22 09:12