ANTA SPORTS(HK:02020) Jin Rong Jie·2026-01-22 09:17Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Anta Sports (02020) has met expectations for Q4 2025 operational performance, with growth momentum in its FILA and other brands, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 141 [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand retail sales experienced low single-digit negative growth year-on-year, while FILA brand retail sales achieved mid-single-digit positive growth [1] - Other brands under Anta recorded a significant retail sales growth of 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4 2025 [1] - For the entire year of 2025, Anta's main brand retail sales showed low single-digit positive growth, FILA brand achieved mid-single-digit positive growth, and other brands saw a robust growth of 45%-50% [1] Group 2: Management Outlook and Forecasts - Morgan Stanley noted that Anta's core brand performance since January 2026 has been in line with expectations, with management providing a pragmatic outlook for retail sales [1] - The core Anta brand is expected to achieve positive growth, FILA is anticipated to continue its 2025 trend, and other brands are projected to see normalized growth [1] - The firm has maintained its profit forecast for Anta for 2025 but has lowered the profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 7%-10% due to a weak macro environment and increased competition leading to higher brand investment [1] Group 3: Valuation - The target price of HKD 141 is derived from a discounted cash flow method, corresponding to a 23 times 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio [1]