25 年主品牌增速短期承压的预期基本充分反映在股价调整之中，我们预计26 年开始主品牌有望逐步改 善。公司今年8 月以来股价持续调整的主要原因之一是市场对安踏主品牌营收增速的一再下调。伴随安 踏品牌季度流水增速从Q1 的高单到Q2 的低单和Q3 的持续低单，市场对主品牌全年营收预期也从最初 的高单下调至中单再到三季度以后的低单。但我们认为短期的承压有消费低迷的整体因素，也有公司对 线下渠道优化和电商团队架构调整的短期冲击，后续随着磨合期的度过，公司26 年起主品牌经营有望 逐步改善，也将为公司估值恢复提供动力。 Fila 保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势，成为公司经营保持韧性的强大 动力。近期刚结束的双十一活动显示公司旗下Fila、迪桑特和可隆表现出色。其中Fila 位列天猫运动户 外销售第一的位置，迪桑特位列第八、可隆位列天猫户外品类第四的位置。结合之前披露的三季度运营 数据，我们预计25 年全年Fila 流水有望实现中单增长，其他品牌流水有望实现40%以上的增长。 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计2025-2027年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 ...

这届年轻人，开始离开都市的鸽子笼，走进山原湖海。在后浪研究所的一项调研中，周末有近三成的人选择外出游玩，且69.9%的年轻人愿意去公园、山 野等户外场所。 随着"去户外"的意向水涨船高，中国户外运动相关的市场规模也在激增。2025年，中国户外产业的总体规模将达8526亿元。其中，运动户外用品市场规模 为5227亿元，较上年增长13.48%，高于全球增速的5.01%。 与此同时，户外运动被纳入全民健身计划，进一步激发了人们的热情。截至2025年4月初，参与户外运动的人数打破了4亿大关，虽19-30岁的年轻人仍是 主力，但30+群体也在加速涌入。 于是，我们能看到功能性装备迈进城市的高楼大厦。刚降温的北京地铁车厢便堪比冲锋衣卖场，硬壳的防雨抗风，软壳的保暖舒适，都是打工人的通勤首 选。而在台风时常偷袭的深圳，防水性能拉满的徒步鞋，是仅次于凉拖的上班刚需。 图源：小红书@抓抓、@momo 穿的人多了，户外装备和品牌也成了消费者用以自我表达和圈层互动的社交货币。线下，一件Patagonia的抓绒马甲暗示个人的环保立场；线上，一次人生 首野的装备分享，收获了更多越野跑爱好者的点赞。 户外热潮同样体现在消费支出上。近年来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a comparative test conducted by the Shenzhen Consumer Council on 16 different brands of outdoor jackets, highlighting the importance of features such as waterproofing, durability, and comfort in outdoor apparel [1][3]. Group 1: Testing Brands and Prices - The tested brands include The North Face, Decathlon, Camel, Quechua, Jack Wolfskin, Xtep, JD.com, Li Ning, Toread, Semir, HLA, Kelty, Shixia, Taiping Bird, Columbia, and Anta [3]. - The sampling prices for the jackets range from 209.75 yuan to 1927 yuan [3]. Group 2: Testing Standards and Chemical Safety - The testing was based on the national standard GB/T 32614-2023, which includes chemical safety indicators such as PFOS and PFOA [4]. - Among the 16 jackets tested, only two brands, Decathlon and Quechua, were labeled as "fluorine-free" products [4]. - All tested samples showed no detectable levels of PFOS, and 8 samples had no detectable levels of PFOA, with 10 samples meeting the limit of <1.0μg/m² for both substances [4]. Group 3: Physical Performance and Durability - All 16 samples met the standard requirements for tear strength, with 7 samples exceeding 20N in both directions, indicating good durability [6]. - The abrasion resistance of all samples met the standard requirement of ≥10,000 cycles, and the appearance after washing and lightfastness also complied with the standards [6]. Group 4: Waterproof Performance - The waterproof performance was evaluated based on surface wetting resistance and hydrostatic pressure [7][9]. - After three washes, 7 samples achieved a surface wetting resistance of level 4 or higher, indicating good waterproofing [7]. - Five samples scored high in hydrostatic pressure tests, demonstrating strong waterproof capabilities [10]. Group 5: Breathability - The moisture permeability rate is crucial for comfort, with 6 samples exceeding 8000g/㎡•24h after three washes, indicating good breathability [11]. Group 6: Overall Evaluation - Among the 16 tested samples, 7 received a five-star rating based on laboratory testing results [12].

盈利预测与投资建议 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持安踏体育(02020)"买入"评级和目标价112.89港币，其联 营企业Amer Sports, Inc(亚玛芬体育)三季度业绩优异，公司旗下Fila、迪桑特、可隆等品牌在双十一表现强 劲，增长动力充足，体现了公司多品牌全球化的运营能力。 东方证券主要观点如下： 业绩表现 公司联营企业Amer(公司是其第一大股东)近日公布25年第三季度的经营业绩，营收同比增长30%，营业 利润同比增长22%，整体超过之前市场的预计。第三季度亚玛芬在全球四大区域市场均实现双位数营收 增长。其中，亚玛芬大中华区实现营收同比增长47%。伴随三季报，Amer同时上调25年全年的收入增 速由之前的20%-21%至23%-24%。该行认为Amer优异的三季报再次展现了公司收购其以后在全球化、 多品牌方面优秀的运营能力(除了始祖鸟，Amer旗下的萨洛蒙和威尔胜也开始焕发强劲的增长潜能)，同 时也部分反映之前的烟花事件对实际的销售影响相对有限。从财务角度，Amer业绩优异为安踏公司投 资收益提供了良好的保障。 Fila保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势， ...

Amer 三季度业绩优异 多品牌战略带来更多 经营韧性 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 和 6.02 元（原预测为 4.80、5.54 和 6.21 元），参考 可比公司，给予 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 112.89 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港 币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：消费终端复苏缓慢、运动服饰行业潮流变化及竞争加剧等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,573 | 86,489 | 95,347 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,143 | 20,123 | 22,545 | | 同比增长 ( ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,824.00, down by 6.65 points or 0.03% as of November 19, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index's highest price during the day was 25,935.21, while the lowest was 25,751.31, with a trading volume of 43.34 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 107.800, down by HKD 1.800 or 1.64% compared to the previous close [2][3] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 622.500, down by HKD 1.000 or 0.16% [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) saw an increase, closing at HKD 156.400, up by HKD 1.800 or 1.16% [3] - Xiaomi Group closed at HKD 38.820, down by HKD 1.960 or 4.81% [3] - AIA Group closed at HKD 77.950, down by HKD 0.600 or 0.76% [3] Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of major companies showed mixed results, with some experiencing declines while others saw slight increases [2][3] - Notable declines included Kuaishou Technology, which closed at HKD 63.500, down by HKD 1.150 or 1.78% [3] - Ctrip Group saw an increase, closing at HKD 574.500, up by HKD 10.000 or 1.77% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant inflow of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market, driven by the increasing presence of high-quality Chinese companies and the attractiveness of valuations, which is expected to support a long-term "slow bull" market trend in Hong Kong stocks [3][10][16]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflow - As of November 10, southbound capital's cumulative net purchase of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 5 trillion HKD, continuing to grow [3]. - By November 19, southbound capital net inflow through the Stock Connect reached 65.91 million HKD, bringing the total net purchase for the year to over 1.34 trillion HKD, a 66% increase compared to the total inflow of 807.8 billion HKD in 2024 [5][6]. - The proportion of southbound capital in the total trading volume of the Hong Kong market has steadily increased from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% in the third quarter of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Sector Focus - The composition of southbound capital has shifted significantly, with technology and dividend-paying stocks becoming the primary focus, moving away from the banking sector, which previously dominated [7][8]. - The top ten holdings of southbound capital are now split between technology and high-dividend stocks, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being major players [8]. - Insurance funds and public funds are the main contributors to southbound capital, with insurance holdings surpassing 1 trillion RMB by the end of the third quarter [9]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Analysts predict that the southbound capital inflow could increase by 1.4 trillion RMB (approximately 1.54 trillion HKD) by the end of next year, with a potential growth of 10 trillion RMB (about 11 trillion HKD) over the next five years [11][13]. - The continuous inflow of long-term capital is expected to enhance market liquidity and optimize the capital market structure, supporting a sustainable "slow bull" market [13][14]. Group 4: Quality of Listed Companies - The article notes that more high-quality Chinese companies are choosing to list in Hong Kong, which enhances the market's attractiveness to both domestic and foreign investors [15][17]. - As of November 19, 2025, 88 companies have gone public in Hong Kong, raising a total of 250.5 billion HKD, a 172.44% increase from the previous year [17]. - The increasing number of globally competitive companies listed in Hong Kong is expected to attract more capital inflow, creating a positive feedback loop [18].

Group 1: Tmall Sales Trends - Tmall's sales rankings during major promotions serve as a window to observe consumer trends, industry changes, and brand performance [1] - Strong brands like Uniqlo have consistently topped the rankings, while emerging players like Songmont have shown significant growth [1] - Brands that have fallen behind exhibit common characteristics related to path dependence and market cycles [1] Group 2: Ralph Lauren and Teenie Weenie - Ralph Lauren and its counterparts, known as the "middle-class three treasures," gained popularity among urban middle-class consumers for their classic designs and comfort [2][4] - However, Ralph Lauren's presence has diminished in recent rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4] - Teenie Weenie, once seen as a perfect alternative to Ralph Lauren, has also experienced a significant decline in rankings and overall performance [5][7] Group 3: Old Puh Gold's Rise - Old Puh Gold has emerged as a significant player in the jewelry market, achieving remarkable growth despite the decline of traditional brands like Chow Tai Fook [11][12] - The brand's strategy focuses on positioning gold as a luxury item and targeting high-net-worth consumers [12][13] - Old Puh Gold's success is attributed to its selective expansion strategy and strong brand presence in high-end commercial centers [13][15] Group 4: Nike and Fila Competition - Nike, once dominant in the sportswear market, has faced challenges from Fila, which has recently taken the top spot in Tmall's sports category [16][18] - Fila's strategy emphasizes a complete outfit approach, while Nike's focus has shifted towards direct-to-consumer channels [20] - The structural misalignment in strategies has allowed Fila to capitalize on current consumer trends, leading to Nike's decline in rankings [20] Group 5: Outdoor Brands' Decline - The outdoor brands that gained popularity during the pandemic have seen a decline in rankings, highlighting the seasonal and cyclical nature of these products [21][23] - The registration of outdoor-related companies peaked in 2023, but growth has slowed in subsequent years, indicating a market correction [23] - Brands must innovate and deepen community engagement to sustain interest beyond initial trends [23] Group 6: Arc'teryx's Crisis - Arc'teryx experienced a sudden drop in rankings due to a controversial marketing event that contradicted its brand values [25][27] - The incident damaged consumer trust, which is crucial for premium brands that rely on their reputation for quality and expertise [27] - This situation serves as a warning for brands about the importance of aligning with consumer values and maintaining brand integrity [27]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has initiated a 30-day observation period for Anta, highlighting potential catalysts including the better-than-expected performance of its subsidiary Amer Sports last quarter and the upward revision of its 2025 full-year operating guidance [1] Group 1: Performance and Guidance - The direct impact of the Arc'teryx brand's September fireworks event is expected to be less than anticipated, with the indirect impact on the Anta brand likely to be milder than market expectations in the coming quarters [1] - Citigroup anticipates that Anta will achieve its full-year retail sales guidance, which includes low single-digit growth for the Anta brand, mid single-digit growth for the Fila brand, and a 40% growth for other brands [1] Group 2: Rating and Target Price - Citigroup has assigned a "Buy" rating to Anta, with a target price set at HKD 109.7 [1]

Summary of Anta Sports Products Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anta Sports Products (2020.HK) - **Related Company**: Amer Sports Key Industry Insights - **Amer Sports Performance**: Amer Sports reported a strong 3Q performance with an adjusted EPS of $0.33, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.25. Revenue increased by 29.7% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 27.2% [1][3] - **Greater China Growth**: The Greater China market showed robust growth at 47% year-over-year, up from 42% in the previous quarter, with notable performance from brands like Salomon and Wilson [2][11] - **Arc'teryx Recovery**: The Arc'teryx brand experienced a recovery in Q4 after a slow start, attributed to cooler weather, which positively impacted sales [2][3] Financial Outlook - **Guidance Update**: Amer Sports raised its FY25 sales and EPS guidance, although the guidance for Q4 is slightly below consensus forecasts [1][3] - **Anta's Financials**: Anta's adjusted EPS is projected to be between $0.88 and $0.92, higher than previous estimates. The anticipated associate income from Amer to Anta is approximately RMB 1,170 million, representing about 9% of Anta's net income [10][11] Market Dynamics - **Outdoor Segment Trends**: The outdoor segment is expected to peak in Q4, with brands that have strong market presence likely to capitalize on peak season sales. However, some outdoor brands are showing signs of growth moderation and increased discounting due to competitive pressures [4][5] - **Consumer Preferences**: There is a sustained consumer preference for outdoor activities, leading to a shift from casual wear to outdoor apparel [3][4] Risks and Challenges - **Anta Brand Performance**: Concerns exist regarding the muted growth outlook for the Anta brand, particularly during the Double-11 shopping festival [5][21] - **Competitive Pressures**: Some outdoor brands are facing deeper discounting and growth slowdowns, which could impact overall market dynamics [4][21] Strategic Initiatives - **Store Expansion Plans**: Arc'teryx plans to close some stores in China while opening larger, more productive direct-to-consumer (DTC) stores, with expectations for net openings in Greater China into 2026 [13] - **Salomon's Growth**: Salomon's footwear segment continues to show strong growth, contributing positively to the outdoor segment's performance [12] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Price Target**: Anta is rated as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$115, indicating a potential upside of 43.6% from the current price of HK$80.10 [20][22] - **Valuation Metrics**: The valuation is based on a 21x P/E for 2027E, discounted back to mid-2026E at 11% [20] Conclusion - The overall outlook for Anta Sports Products remains positive, driven by strong performance from associated brands and a favorable market environment for outdoor activities, despite some near-term challenges and competitive pressures.