Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Anta Sports (2020 HK) [6] Core Views - Anta Sports reported Q4 and full-year 2024 retail sales performance with Anta and FILA brands showing high single-digit growth in Q4 while other brands grew 50%-55% [2][4] - Full-year retail sales for Anta and FILA brands grew by high single-digit and mid single-digit respectively with other brands growing 40%-45% [2][4] - Anta brand's Q4 retail sales grew by high single-digit (mid single-digit in Q3) with healthy inventory levels and slightly deeper discounts [7] - FILA brand's Q4 retail sales exceeded expectations with high single-digit growth driven by strong performance across its mainline children's and trendy sub-brands [7] - Descente and Kolon continued high growth rates becoming the third growth pillar for the group [7] - Anta Sports' 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 12 0/138/154 billion yuan representing year-on-year growth of 18%/15%/11% respectively [7] - Current price corresponds to PE ratios of 17/14/13X for 2024-2026 indicating relatively low valuation [7] Financial Forecasts - Anta Sports' operating income is projected to grow from 62 356 million yuan in 2023 to 85 117 million yuan in 2026 with year-on-year growth rates of 16 23%/12 63%/10 29%/9 89% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 10 236 million yuan in 2023 to 15 394 65 million yuan in 2026 with year-on-year growth rates of 34 86%/33 04%/1 46%/11 42% [9] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 3 63 yuan/share in 2023 to 5 45 yuan/share in 2026 [9]

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【广发 & | 纺 服 | 海 外 】 安 踏 体 育 | | --- | --- | --- | | （02020.HK） | | | | Q4 维持高营运质量，Fila | | 流水恢复超预期 | [公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 78.10 港元 合理价值 93.67 港元 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-18 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]糜韩杰 SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 SFC CE No. BPH764 021-38003650 mihanjie@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李咏红 SAC 执证号：S0260523100001 021-38003542 liyonghong@gf.com.cn 请注意，李咏红并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 -2% 11% 24% 36% 49% 62% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 1 ...

6 安踏体育（2020） 更新报告 2024 年第四季度表现优于预期 买入 2024 年 1 月 15 日 王柏俊 852-25321915 patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 | 行业 | 服装纺织 | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 78.5 港元 | | 目标价 | 106.4 港元 | | | （+35.6%） | | 股票代码 | 2020 | | 已发行股本 | 28.23 亿股 | | 市值 | 2216 亿港元 | | 52 周高/低 | 107.5/57.87 港元 | | 每股净现值 | 20.23 人民币 | | 主要股东 | 丁世忠（52.56%） | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止1 2月3 1日财政年度 | 2 0 2 2实际 2 | 0 2 3实际 2 | 0 2 4预测 | 2 0 2 5预测 | 2 0 2 6预测 | 120 | | | 收入（百万人民币） | 53,651 | 62,356 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 104.28, implying a potential upside of **33.5%** from the current price of HKD 78.10 [1][13] Core Views - Anta Sports' multi-brand strategy continues to receive positive market feedback, with the company maintaining a strong outlook for long-term growth [13] - The report slightly lowers the financial forecasts for 2024-2026 due to uncertainties in the consumer environment, adjusting the target price to HKD 104.28, based on 22x 2025 P/E [13] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 80,152 million in 2026, with a CAGR of **9.5%** [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 14,778 million in 2026, with a CAGR of **18.1%** [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 2.73 in 2022 to RMB 4.94 in 2026, with a CAGR of **16.1%** [3] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash positions from 2024 to 2026 [6] Operational Highlights - In Q4 2024, Anta brand retail sales grew by high single digits, FILA by high single digits, and other brands by **50-55%** [13] - For the full year 2024, Anta brand/FILA/other brands retail sales grew by high single digits/mid single digits/**40-45%**, respectively [13] - Anta brand's offline retail discount remained stable at 72%, while online discounts improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year [13] - FILA brand's discount rate remained stable at 74-75%, with growth in its mainline, kids, and fashion segments [13] - Other brands, including Kolon and Descente, exceeded expectations with combined sales exceeding RMB 10 billion, growing by **60-65%** and **45-50%**, respectively [13] Strategic Initiatives - Anta is actively expanding its overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and plans to enter the Middle East in 2025, with a potential direct store opening in Los Angeles [13] - The company is focusing on creating popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes (with sales reaching millions) and the Storm Armor jacket, to prepare for the upcoming sales season [13] - Anta is leveraging major sporting events like the Asian Winter Olympics, Milan Winter Olympics, and Los Angeles Olympics to enhance its international brand exposure and recognition [13] Valuation Metrics - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of **16.8x** for 2024, **16.5x** for 2025, and **14.9x** for 2026 [3] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from **3.86x** in 2023 to **2.77x** in 2026 [3] - The dividend yield is projected to increase from **2.5%** in 2023 to **3.5%** in 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 78.1 HKD [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q4 2024 performance shows strong growth, with Anta brand recording high single-digit growth in both Q4 and full-year sales [1] - FILA brand sees a significant recovery in Q4 2024 with high single-digit growth, while full-year sales grow at a mid-single-digit rate [1] - Other brands experience a 50-55% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 and a 40-45% growth for the full year [1] - Anta Group's total transaction volume during Double 11 exceeds 11.1 billion RMB, with Anta, FILA, and Descente ranking in the top 10 for sports footwear and apparel on Tmall, and Kolon entering the top 5 for outdoor footwear and apparel [2] - The "Super Anta" initiative shows significant results, with 45 stores opened in 2024 and plans to open 160 stores in 2025, achieving store efficiency three times that of regular stores [3] - Over 80% of Anta and Anta Kids stores in China have adopted the DTC model by H1 2024 [3] - The company's hybrid operating model effectively leverages the strengths and positioning of different brands, with wholesale and DTC models driving sales through distributors and franchisees, while direct retail models enhance sensitivity to consumer demand changes [3] - Anta Sports is steadily advancing its global strategy, with successful direct retail operations in key overseas markets and plans to expand in Southeast Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [4] - The company's global strategy is based on deep market insights, tailoring operations to local consumer habits and preferences [4] Financial Projections - Anta Sports' revenue is projected to be 70.1 billion RMB in 2024, 78.5 billion RMB in 2025, and 86.8 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.4 billion RMB in 2024 (including one-time gains), 13.2 billion RMB in 2025, and 14.6 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted at 4.7 RMB/share in 2024 and 2025, and 5.2 RMB/share in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 17x, and 15x [5] Market Performance - Anta Sports' stock price has shown a significant upward trend, outperforming the Hang Seng Index with a 36% increase from January 2024 to September 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's sales performance exceeded expectations, with Anta brand achieving high single-digit growth in Q4 2024 and FILA brand showing significant improvement from the previous quarter [7] - The company's multi-brand strategy is robust, with Anta's main brand growing steadily and FILA focusing on high-end fashion, while new outdoor brands continue to show strong momentum [7] - The company's share buyback program is progressing rapidly, with 16.06 million shares repurchased between December 20, 2024, and January 9, 2025, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for FY2022 was RMB 536.5 billion, increasing to RMB 623.6 billion in FY2023, with projected revenues of RMB 686.0 billion, RMB 743.5 billion, and RMB 808.6 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 75.9 billion in FY2022, rising to RMB 102.4 billion in FY2023, with forecasts of RMB 134.1 billion, RMB 135.7 billion, and RMB 150.7 billion for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] - Gross margin improved from 60.2% in FY2022 to 62.6% in FY2023, with further increases expected to 63.3%, 64.0%, and 64.6% in FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively [3] Brand Performance - Anta brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business growing at low double-digit rates [7] - FILA brand saw high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's business turning from negative growth in Q3 to mid-single-digit growth [7] - New outdoor brands, including Kolon Sport and DESCENTE, showed strong performance with Q4 2024 growth rates of 60-65% and 45-50% respectively [7] Channel Performance - Online sales outperformed offline, with Anta's e-commerce growing at high double-digit rates in Q4 2024 [7] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, the company's e-commerce GMV reached RMB 11.1 billion, securing the top position in the industry without excessive discounting [7] - Offline channels continued to innovate, with the introduction of high-value-for-money Super Anta stores capturing price-sensitive consumers effectively [7] Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels remained healthy, with Anta and FILA's inventory-to-sales ratio at around 5x [7] - Discount levels improved steadily, with Anta's online discounts improving by 1 percentage point year-on-year in Q4 2024, while offline discounts remained stable at around 7.2% [7] International Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its overseas expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while also planning to open a direct retail store in Los Angeles and launch cross-border e-commerce in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 109.62, based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - FILA showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, while other brands maintained high growth [1] - Anta Sports is expected to achieve industry-leading growth due to its strong multi-brand operational capabilities, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia, and the US, with the appointment of a new international business head [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 85,439 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,925 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.6% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.69 in 2022 to RMB 5.64 in 2026 [5] Brand Performance - Anta brand: Q4 2024 sales grew by high single digits year-on-year, with faster growth in children's categories and e-commerce channels [5] - FILA: Q4 2024 sales grew by high single digits year-on-year, showing resilience in the fashion sports segment [5] - Other brands: Q4 2024 sales grew by 50-55% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from Descente and Kolon [5] Valuation and Market Comparison - Anta Sports' 2025E PE ratio is 15.1x, lower than peers like Lululemon (26x) and Nike (27x) [7] - The company's 2025E PB ratio is 2.7x, compared to Lululemon's 26x and Nike's 27x [7] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports is advancing channel reforms, including the construction of "Super Anta" channels and optimizing store models [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation to align with current consumer trends [5]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - Q4 saw a sequential acceleration in sales across all brands, with FILA performing better than expected [1] - ANTA brand's e-commerce performance was strong, and FILA exceeded expectations [6] - The company maintains a single-focus, multi-brand, and global strategy, with ANTA strengthening product power and innovating channels, while FILA continues high-quality growth by enhancing vertical competitiveness and optimizing channels [6] - Other brands are expected to continue high growth by penetrating new markets [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 70,100 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 12.4% [10] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be 13,588 million RMB, with a YoY growth of 32.7% [10] - Gross margin for 2024E is forecasted at 63.0%, with a net margin of 19.4% [10] - ROE for 2024E is estimated at 24.3%, with an EPS of 4.8 RMB [10] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 15.0x, and P/B ratio is 3.6x [10] ANTA Brand Performance - Q4 sales for ANTA brand grew at a high single-digit rate, with adult/children offline sales growing at high single-digit/low double-digit rates, and e-commerce sales growing by approximately 20% [6] - Full-year sales growth was high single-digit, with children's sales exceeding 10 billion RMB [6] - Inventory-to-sales ratio was around 5, with offline discounts stable and online discounts improving [6] - Channel innovations, such as ANTA Champion and ANTA Shoe Collection, are expected to drive continued growth [6] FILA Brand Performance - Q4 sales for FILA were slightly negative, but full-year sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate [7] - Mainline sales grew at a high single-digit rate, while children's and trendy lines adjusted effectively, with children's sales growing at a mid-single-digit rate and trendy lines growing at a high double-digit rate [7] - Inventory-to-sales ratio remained around 5, with discounts in good condition [7] Other Brands Performance - Q4 sales for other brands grew by 50-55%, with DESCENTE growing over 40% and KOLON growing 60-65% [8] - Full-year sales growth for other brands was 40-45%, with expectations of further growth driven by the Asian Winter Olympics in February 2025 [8] Related Research Reports - Previous reports highlighted FILA's Q3 sales fluctuations, ANTA's H1 core profit exceeding expectations, and Q2 retail performance meeting expectations despite market volatility [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a 6-month target price of HKD 103.8 [6][10] Core Views - Anta Sports' main brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's products growing at low double digits and e-commerce growing nearly 20% [7] - FILA returned to growth in Q4 2024, with high single-digit growth in main products, mid single-digit growth in children's products, and high double-digit growth in Fusion products [7] - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, grew 45-50% and 60-65% respectively in Q4 2024, maintaining a high growth rate [7] - Anta Sports' new store formats, such as ANTA SNEAKERVERSE and Super Anta, have been successful in targeting different consumer segments [8] - The company is expected to benefit from industry development as a leading player in China's sports goods industry [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53.65 billion in 2022 to RMB 84.06 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.2% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 7.59 billion in 2022 to RMB 15.07 billion in 2026 [9] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 60.2% in 2022 to 63.3% in 2026 [9] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 2.82 in 2022 to RMB 5.43 in 2026 [9] - ROE is forecasted to remain stable at around 20% from 2023 to 2026 [15] Operational Highlights - Inventory turnover days improved from 138 days in 2022 to 122.8 days in 2023 and are expected to remain at 123 days from 2024 to 2026 [15] - Accounts receivable days decreased from 50.4 days in 2022 to 46.5 days in 2023 and are expected to stabilize at 50 days from 2024 to 2026 [15] - The company's capital structure is improving, with the debt-to-capital ratio decreasing from 45.3% in 2022 to a projected 31.3% in 2026 [15] Market Performance - The stock price was HKD 78.6 as of January 9, 2025, with a total market capitalization of HKD 221.9 billion [10] - The 12-month trading range was between HKD 74.2 and HKD 80.1 [10] - The stock showed a 14.61% absolute return over the past 12 months, despite a 4.24% relative underperformance [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance showed steady growth, with **Anta's main brand** and **FILA** recording high single-digit growth, while other brands surged by **50%-55%** YoY [1] - For the full year 2024, Anta's main brand grew by high single digits, FILA by mid-single digits, and other brands by **40%-45%** YoY, demonstrating resilience in a challenging consumer environment [1][4] - FILA's performance exceeded market expectations, with a rapid turnaround in Q4, indicating strong brand adjustment effectiveness [2] - The company's **multi-brand strategy** continues to drive growth, with **Descente** and **Kolon** expected to surpass **RMB 10 billion** in sales in 2024, solidifying their leadership in the professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Business Analysis Anta Main Brand - The brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4, driven by **multi-channel strategies** and effective discount management [2] - Anta Kids also saw low double-digit growth, supported by its online and offline coverage of children's sports communities [2] - Inventory and channel health remained strong, with optimized online discounts and healthy inventory-to-sales ratios [2] FILA - FILA's Q4 performance was better than expected, with high single-digit growth in its mainline products and significant improvement in its fashion and kids' segments [2] - The brand's inventory-to-sales ratio remained healthy, and discounts were stable YoY, reflecting strong product appeal [2] Other Brands - **Descente** and **Kolon** recorded **50%-55%** YoY growth in Q4, maintaining strong momentum despite a high base [2] - These brands are expected to continue capturing market share in the high-growth professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Outlook for 2025 - The company expects **double-digit growth** for both Anta's main brand and FILA in 2025, driven by **new business models** and international expansion [3] - The **Super Anta stores**, which cater to the trend of consumption downgrading, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [3] - The company is expanding its presence in **Southeast Asia**, the **Middle East**, and **Europe**, with retail stores already established in the US and Europe, and partnerships with cross-border e-commerce platforms [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's **EPS** for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 4.70**, **RMB 4.89**, and **RMB 5.66**, respectively, with P/E ratios of **15x**, **14x**, and **12x** [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from **RMB 62.356 billion** in 2023 to **RMB 83.904 billion** in 2026, with a **10.08%** YoY growth rate in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from **RMB 10.236 billion** in 2023 to **RMB 15.967 billion** in 2026 [7] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with **82 Buy ratings** in the past six months and a consistent **1.00 score**, indicating strong market confidence in the company's prospects [11][12]